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Binhai Investment Co (HKSE:02886) Predictability Rank


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What is Binhai Investment Co Predictability Rank?

3 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Binhai Investment Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Binhai Investment Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Binhai Investment Co (HKSE:02886) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Binhai Investment Co Ltd (HKSE:02886) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:09908 HKSE:06828 HKSE:01940 HKSE:01265 HKSE:01407 HKSE:00681 HKSE:01600 XMAD:NTGY ATO BOM:532155 MIL:SRG HKSE:00003 NI BOM:542066 HKSE:02688 TSE:9531 TSE:9532 XKLS:6033 HKSE:01193 ASX:APA
Traded in Other Exchanges
WS7A:Germany
Address
1 Matheson Street, Causeway Bay, Suites 3205-07, 32nd Floor, Tower Two, Times Square, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.binhaiinv.com
Binhai Investment Co Ltd is an investment holding company engaged in the sales of piped natural gas, construction, and gas pipeline installation service, gas passing through service, and sales of bottled natural gas. It derives a majority of its revenue from construction, and gas pipeline installation services in which the group constructs gas pipelines for its clients and connects such pipelines to the group's main gas pipeline networks and charges construction and gas pipeline installation service fees from industrial and commercial customers, property developers and property management companies.
Executives
Teda Investment Holding Co., Ltd.
Tian Jin Tai Da Shi Ye Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tian Jin Bo Hai Guo You Zi Chan Jing Ying Guan Li You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tianjin Teda Investment Holding Co., Ltd. 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China Petrochemical Corporation 2101 Beneficial owner
Zhong Guo Shi You Hua Gong Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner

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