Howkingtech International Holding (HKSE:02440) Predictability Rank

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What is Howkingtech International Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Howkingtech International Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Howkingtech International Holding (HKSE:02440) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Telecommunication Services » Howkingtech International Holding Ltd (HKSE:02440) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 9, East Mozhou Road, Jiangning Economic and Technological Development Zone, Building B4, Nanjing, CHN

Website

http://www.howkingtech.com

Howkingtech International Holding Ltd is a provider for data transmission and processing services for IoT applications and telecommunication equipment in China, serving a broad range of industrial customers. It mainly provides customized data transmission and processing services to customers in manufacturing, municipal services and other industries in China, and research, develop and sell telecommunication equipment.

Executives

Wang Zheshi	2101 Beneficial owner
Chen Ping	2202 Interest of your spouse
Howkingtech Holding Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Jin Yan	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ban Lifeng	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Xie Xiongqing	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ye Xiang	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ding Di	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wu Chak Man	2101 Beneficial owner
Ning Bo Hui Xin Zhi Yuan Tou Zi Guan Li He Huo Qi Ye You Xian He Huo	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ning Bo Xin Hui Qian Hai Gu Quan Tou Zi You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shang Hai Jin Yuan Zhang Fu Qi Ye Guan Li He Huo Qi Ye You Xian He Huo	2101 Beneficial owner
Shen Zhen Hui Xin Qian Hai Gu Quan Tou Zi Qi Ye You Xian He Huo	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Howkingtech International Holding (HKSE:02440) Headlines

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