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Raily Aesthetic Medicine International Holdings (HKSE:02135) Predictability Rank


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What is Raily Aesthetic Medicine International Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Raily Aesthetic Medicine International Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Raily Aesthetic Medicine International Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Raily Aesthetic Medicine International Holdings (HKSE:02135) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 290 North Zhongshan Road, 3-5th Floor, Minhang Tower, Gongshu District, Hangzhou, CHN
Raily Aesthetic Medicine International Holdings Ltd is an aesthetic medical service provider in Zhejiang Province, the PRC. It offers a broad range of aesthetic medical services to clients to meet their different aesthetic and anti-aging objectives. The group is organized into business units based on their services and has three reportable operating segments namely Aesthetic medical services which comprise principally inpatient services including surgical services and outpatient services including injection service, dermatology services, and others; and Consulting service segment which comprise principally management consulting services. Aesthetic medical equipment products comprise principally sales of surgical implants and aesthetic medical skincare products.
Executives
Fu Haishu 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jin Chunmiao 2202 Interest of your spouse
Ruide Consultation Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Youxin Management Co., Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Beauty Milkway (hk) Limited
China Orient Asset Management (international) Holding Limited
China Orient Asset Management Co., Ltd.
Dong Yin Development (holdings) Limited
Wise Leader Assets Ltd.
Shang Hai Dong Hua Jian Kang Guan Li He Huo Qi Ye You Xian He Huo
Dong Fang Zi Chan Guan Li Zhong Guo Kong Gu You Xian Gong Si
Shen Zhen Dong Fang Chuang Ye Tou Zi You Xian Gong Si
Shen Zhen Qian Hai Cai Fu Dong Fang Gu Quan Tou Zi Ji Jin Guan Li You Xian Gong Si
Qing Hai Sheng Dong Fang Cang Yi Yao Chan Ye Fa Zhan Ji Jin You Xian He Huo
Qing Hai Sheng Dong Fang Cang Yi Yao Chan Ye Tou Zi Guan Li You Xian Gong Si

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