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C&D International Investment Group (HKSE:01908) Predictability Rank


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What is C&D International Investment Group Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

C&D International Investment Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

C&D International Investment Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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C&D International Investment Group (HKSE:01908) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » C&D International Investment Group Ltd (HKSE:01908) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:00123 HKSE:00247 HKSE:02007 HKSE:03900 HKSE:00683 HKSE:00754 HKSE:09993 HKSE:00817 HKSE:00604 HKSE:00081 HKSE:00016 HKSE:01109 HKSE:00688 HKSE:01113 TSE:1925 SHSE:600048 SZSE:000002 BOM:532868 DFM:EMAAR SZSE:001979
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
213 Queen’s Road East, Office No. 3517, 35th Floor, Wu Chung House, Wanchai, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.cndintl.com
C&D International Investment Group Ltd is an investment holding company engaged in the real estate sector. The company operates in a single segment of property development and generates the majority of its revenue from China.
Executives
Sha Men Jian Fa Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Sha Men Jian Fa Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jian Fa Fang Di Chan Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Yi Neng Guo Ji You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner
Yi Hong Guo Ji You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Boci Trustee (hong Kong) Limited 2301 Trustee
Li Richard 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Olp Capital Management Limited 2102 Investment manager
Rcwl Inc. 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shen Di Fan 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Oceanlink Partners Fund, Lp 2101 Beneficial owner
Cederberg Capital (cayman) 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cederberg Capital (cayman) Gp 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Krige Dawid 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

C&D International Investment Group (HKSE:01908) Headlines

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