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Rongzun International Holdings Group (HKSE:01780) Predictability Rank


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What is Rongzun International Holdings Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rongzun International Holdings Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Rongzun International Holdings Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Rongzun International Holdings Group (HKSE:01780) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Rongzun International Holdings Group Ltd (HKSE:01780) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:01499 HKSE:00240 HKSE:02236 HKSE:02163 HKSE:01727 HKSE:00687 HKSE:01183 HKSE:02221 HKSE:01726 HKSE:00610 XPAR:DG NSE:LT SHSE:601668 PWR SHSE:601390 J TSX:WSP HKSE:01800 SHSE:601186 XKRX:028260
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 79 Lei Muk Road, Units 2803-2803A, Asia Trade Centre, Kwai Chung, New Territories, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.bnd-strategic.com.hk
B & D Strategic Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company. It operates in two segments: Alteration & addition works and Civil engineering works. Its Alteration & addition works include new structural works, fitting-out works, changes in facilities configuration, construction of a new extension to an existing building, conversion of an existing building to different types, fabrication, modification, removal, or installation of hardware and equipment; erection, relocation, or removal of partitions, doors, and windows; changes in the type of finishes and flooring materials. The Civil engineering segment includes site formation works and foundation works. All of its revenues are generated from Hong Kong.
Executives
Kaneko Hiroshi 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Kyosei Technology Inc. 2101 Beneficial owner
Yanase Kenichi 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Sky Winner Holdings Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Chan Wai Ching Rebecca 2202 Interest of your spouse
Lam Ah Yee 2202 Interest of your spouse
Lo Wing Hang 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tang Wing Kwok 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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