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Putian Communication Group (HKSE:01720) Predictability Rank


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What is Putian Communication Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Putian Communication Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Putian Communication Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Putian Communication Group (HKSE:01720) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Putian Communication Group Ltd (HKSE:01720) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:08043 HKSE:08245 HKSE:00482 HKSE:09963 HKSE:01473 HKSE:00248 HKSE:01613 HKSE:01087 HKSE:08286 HKSE:08092 CSCO MSI SHSE:601138 HPE OHEL:NOKIA SZSE:000063 SHSE:688036 OSTO:ERIC B ZBRA TPE:2345
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 8899 ChangDong Avenue, Hi-tech Development Zone, Jiangxi Province, Nanchang, CHN
Website
http://www.potel-group.com
Putian Communication Group Ltd, along with its subsidiaries, is a communication cable manufacturer and structured cabling system product provider. The company's products include optical Fiber, Optical cable, digital communication cables, security cables, panels, jumpers, cabinet chassis, and others. The operating segments of the group are Optical fibers and Optical fiber cables, Communication copper cables, and Structured cabling system products. It generates maximum revenue from the Communication copper cables segment. The group's revenue is derived from the PRC.
Executives
Arcenciel Capital Co., Ltd 2101 Beneficial owner
Wang Qiuping 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Point Stone Capital Co., Ltd. 2101 Beneficial owner
Zhao Xiaobao 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhong Hang Zi Ben Guo Ji Kong Gu You Xian Gong Si 2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Zhong Hang Zi Ben Kong Gu Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Putian Communication Group (HKSE:01720) Headlines

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