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Tianjin Tianbao Energy Co (HKSE:01671) Predictability Rank


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What is Tianjin Tianbao Energy Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tianjin Tianbao Energy Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Tianjin Tianbao Energy Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tianjin Tianbao Energy Co (HKSE:01671) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Independent Power Producers » Tianjin Tianbao Energy Co Ltd (HKSE:01671) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:01281 SHSE:600900 HKSE:01816 BOM:533096 SHSE:600011 VST LSE:CNA HKSE:00006 BOM:539254 NRG HKSE:00836 BOM:500400 SHSE:600674 SHSE:600023 NSE:JSWENERGY SHSE:601991 BUE:PAMP DFM:EMPOWER ASX:AGL BOM:532779
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No.35, Haibin 8th Road, Tianjin Port Free Trade Zone, Tianjin, CHN, 300461
Website
https://www.tjtbny.com
Tianjin Tianbao Energy Co Ltd is a power operator in the Tianjin Port Free Trade Zone (Seaport and Lingang). The company is engaged in the cogeneration of steam, together with electricity, heating and cooling. The company's operations comprise i) power generation and supply; ii) electricity dispatch and sale; iii) development and operation of distributed photovoltaic power generation stations and iv) contractual energy management, energy conservation management services, vehicle charging sales, electric vehicle charging infrastructure operation, and wind power generation technology services. Its operating segments include Electricity dispatch and sale business, Power generation and supply business, and Others. It derives revenue from Power generation and supply business.
Executives
Yuan Andy Yun Nan 2101 Beneficial owner
Tian Jin Bao Shui Qu Tou Zi Kong Gu Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tian Jin Tian Bao Kong Gu You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner

Tianjin Tianbao Energy Co (HKSE:01671) Headlines

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