China Vanadium Titano-Magnetite Mining Co (HKSE:00893) Predictability Rank

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What is China Vanadium Titano-Magnetite Mining Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Vanadium Titano-Magnetite Mining Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

China Vanadium Titano-Magnetite Mining Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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China Vanadium Titano-Magnetite Mining Co (HKSE:00893) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Steel » China Vanadium Titano-Magnetite Mining Co Ltd (HKSE:00893) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CV8S:Germany

Address

1 Matheson Street, 31st Floor, Tower Two Times Square, Causeway Bay, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

https://www.chinavtmmining.com

China Vanadium Titano-Magnetite Mining Co Ltd is engaged in mining and ore processing; sale of self-produced products; trading of steels; management of strategic investments; and rendering of specialized mining services. Its segments include the High-Fe Mining operation segment comprises the operation of the sale of self-produced high-grade iron concentrates within the range of 65% TFe to 72% TFe and the provision of consultancy and management services; the Trading segment comprises the operation of the sale of traded products; and the Corporate and others segment covers the nonoperating activities supporting the group which includes the central functions such as the functional costs that have not been allocated to the other segments.

Executives

Erie Investments Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Jiang Hua	2202 Interest of your spouse
Zou Hua	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Kingston Grand Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Li Hesheng	2401 A concert party to an agreement to buy shares
Long Sino International Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shi Yinjun	2401 A concert party to an agreement to buy shares
Trisonic International Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Wang Jin	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wu Wendong	2401 A concert party to an agreement to buy shares
Yang Xianlu	2401 A concert party to an agreement to buy shares
Zhang Yuangui	2401 A concert party to an agreement to buy shares
Si Chuan Xin Tuo You Xian Gong Si	2106 Person having a security interest in shares

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