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Truly International Holdings (HKSE:00732) Predictability Rank


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What is Truly International Holdings Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Truly International Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Truly International Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Truly International Holdings (HKSE:00732) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Truly International Holdings Ltd (HKSE:00732) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:00259 HKSE:00580 HKSE:00710 HKSE:01478 HKSE:00031 HKSE:00698 HKSE:00040 HKSE:00334 HKSE:00532 HKSE:01480 APH TPE:2317 TEL TSE:6981 SZSE:002475 GLW TPE:2308 SZSE:000725 XKRX:006400 TSE:6762
Traded in Other Exchanges
TRUHF:USA TYU2:Germany
Address
1-3 Wing Yip Street, 2nd Floor, Chung Shun Knitting Centre, Kwai Chung, New Territories, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.truly.com.hk
Truly International Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company. Its subsidiaries are principally engaged in the business of manufacturing and sale of liquid crystal display (LCD) products including touch panel products and electronic consumer products including a compact camera module, fingerprint identification modules, personal health care products and electrical devices. The Group is currently organised into two operating segments which are sales of LCD products and electronic consumer products. The LCD products manufacture and distribute LCD products and touch panel products. Electronic consumer products manufacture and distribute electronic consumer products such as CCM, fingerprint identification modules, personal health care products and electrical devices.
Executives
Lam Wai Wah 2101 Beneficial owner
Chung King Yee, Cecilia 2202 Interest of your spouse
Rays Capital Partners Limited 2102 Investment manager
Ruan David Ching Chi 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Truly International Holdings (HKSE:00732) Headlines

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