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Highlands REIT (Highlands REIT) Predictability Rank


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What is Highlands REIT Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Highlands REIT Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Highlands REIT Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Highlands REIT (Highlands REIT) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Highlands REIT Inc (OTCPK:HHDS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
MDV FREVS MDRR GIPR SQFT PDNLA NXDT CTO OLP INRE VICI ASX:MGR WPC FUNO11 ASX:SGP LSE:LAND SRC LSE:UTG ASX:GPT TSE:8984
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1 South Dearborn Street, 20th Floor, Chicago, IL, USA, 60603
Website
https://www.highlandsreit.com
Highlands REIT Inc is an independent, self-advised, non-traded real estate investment trust. The company's portfolio consists of office, industrial, retail and apartment assets, correctional facility, and unimproved land. Its business activities are operated through two business segments namely Multi-family and other. The company generates maximum revenue from the Multi-family segment.
Executives
Kimberly A Karas officer: See Remarks 1 SOUTH DEARBORN STREET, 20TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603
Jeffrey L. Shekell director 1 SOUTH DEARBORN STREET, 20TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603
Robert J. Lange officer: See Remarks 1 SOUTH DEARBORN STREET, 20TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603
Paul A. Melkus director 332 S MICHIGAN AVENUE, NINTH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60604
R. David Turner director 1 SOUTH DEARBORN STREET, 20TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603
Inventrust Properties Corp. 10 percent owner 3025 HIGHLAND PARKWAY SUITE 350, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Richard Vance director, officer: See Remarks 1 SOUTH DEARBORN STREET, 20TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603
Joseph M. Giannini officer: See Remarks 332 S MICHIGAN AVENUE, NINTH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60604

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