hhgregg (hhgregg) Predictability Rank

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What is hhgregg Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

hhgregg Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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hhgregg (hhgregg) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » hhgregg Inc (OTCPK:HGGG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4151 East 96th Street, Indianapolis, IN, USA, 46240

Website

http://www.hhgregg.com

hhgregg Inc is a part of the retail sector. It is a multi-regional retailer which provides an extensive selection of premium appliances, consumer electronics, home products and computers and tablets in its brick-and-mortar stores in the United States via hhgregg.com. The company's sales are categorized into four products; Appliances, which include refrigerators, cooking ranges, dishwashers; Consumer electronics such as 4K and OLED televisions and audio systems; Home Products which include furniture and mattresses and computer systems.

Executives

Aaron Trahan	officer: Chief Merchandising Officer	4151 E 96TH STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
Michael Andretti	director	4151 E. 96TH STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
Thomas Joseph Schuetz	officer: Chief Information Officer	4151 E 96TH STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
Samuel J Johnson	officer: Chief Retail Officer	4151 E 96TH STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
Kenneth Kocher	director	GENESCO INC., 1415 MURFREESBORO ROAD, NASHVILLE TN 37217
Kevin Kovacs	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	HHGREGG INC., 4151 EAST 96TH STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46420
William P Carmichael	director	3308 N. MITTHOEFFER ROAD, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46235
Catherine A Langham	director	LANGHAM LOGISTICS, INC., 5335 WEST 74TH STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46268
Keith M Zimmerman	officer: Chief Merchandising Officer	HHGREGG, INC., 4151 E. 96TH STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
Robert James Riesbeck	officer: Chief Financial Officer	100 PIER 1 PLACE, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Troy H Risch	officer: Chief Operating Officer	300 RADIOSHACK CIRCLE, MS CF3-203, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Andrew S Giesler	officer: INTERIM CFO	4151 E. 96TH STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
Julie Clare Lyle	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	4151 E. 96TH STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
Greg Bettinelli	director	4151 EAST 96TH STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
Jeffery G Haines	officer: Chief Merchandising Officer	4151 EAST 96TH STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240