Hardinge (Hardinge) Predictability Rank

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What is Hardinge Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hardinge Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Hardinge (Hardinge) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Hardinge Inc (NAS:HDNG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.hardinge.com

Hardinge Inc is a machine tool manufacturer. It designs and manufactures computer-numerically controlled cutting lathes, machining centers, grinding machines, collets, chucks, index fixtures and other industrial products. The company operates through two reportable segments, Metalcutting Machine Solutions (MMS) and Aftermarket Tooling and Accessories (ATA). The MMS segment includes high-precision computer controlled metalcutting turning machines, vertical machining centers, horizontal machining centers, grinding machines, and repair parts related to those machines. The Company's ATA segment includes products that are purchased by manufacturers throughout the lives of their machines. The company's products are sold to customers in North America, Europe, and Asia.

Executives

R Tony Tripeny	director	ONE RIVERFRONT PLAZA, CORNING NY 14831
Charles P Dougherty	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O TYCO ELECTRONICS LTD, 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Ryan Levenson	director	2396 DELLWOOD DRIVE, ATLANTA GA 30305
Benjamin L Rosenzweig	director	50 OLD IVY ROAD SUITE 230, ATLANTA GA 30342
Mitchell I Quain	director	53 FOREST AVENUE, SUITE 101, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Robert R Rogowski	officer: Corporate Controller	C/0 HARDINGE INC., ONE HARDINGE DRIVE, ELMIRA NY 14903
B. Christopher Disantis	director	8540 GANDER CREEK DRIVE MIAMISBURG OH 45342
Richard L Simons	other: Former Officer	ONE HARDINGE DRIVE, ELMIRA NY 14902-1507
Privet Fund Lp	10 percent owner	3280 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 2670, Atlanta GA 30305
Privet Fund Management Llc	10 percent owner	3280 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 2670, ATLANTA GA 30305
Robert Lepofsky	director	C/O HARDINGE INC., ONE HARDINGE DRIVE, ELMIRA NY 14902