What is Healthier Choices Management Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Healthier Choices Management Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Healthier Choices Management (Healthier Choices Management) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3800 North 28th Way, Hollywood, FL, USA, 33020
Healthier Choices Management Corp is a United States-based holding company focused on providing consumers with healthier daily choices with respect to nutrition and other lifestyle alternatives. It offers Ada's Natural Market, a natural and organic grocery store offering fresh produce, bulk foods, vitamins, and supplements, Paradise Health & Nutrition's three stores offer fresh produce, bulk foods, vitamins and supplements, packaged groceries, meat, and seafood, Mother Earth's Storehouse, is a two-store organic and health food and vitamin chain, and Greens Natural Foods offers organic produce and all-natural, non-GMO groceries & bulk foods. The operating segments of the company are Grocery and Vapor. Grocery segments account for the majority of its revenue.
Executives
| Clifford J. Friedman |
director |
5018 NW102 DRIVE, CORAL SPRINGS FL 33076 |
| Anthony Panariello |
director |
3214 SW 53RD COURT, HOLLYWOOD FL 33321 |
| John Ollet |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
3800 NORTH 28TH WAY, HOLLYWOOD FL 33020 |
| Christopher Santi |
officer: President and COO |
3001 GRIFFIN RD, DANIA BEACH FL 33312 |
| Jeffrey Elliot Holman |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
3341 N.E. 165TH STREET, NORTH MIAMI BEACH FL 33160 |
| Gina Hicks |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
3001 GRIFFIN ROAD, DANIA BEACH FL 33312 |
| Nik Raman |
director |
171 MADISON AVENUE, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| William C Conway |
director |
3001 GRIFFIN ROAD, DANIA BEACH FL 33312 |
| Daniel Maclachlan |
director |
2650 NORTH MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 300, BOCA RATON FL 33431 |
| James Joseph Martin |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
4400 BISCAYNE BLVD, SUITE # 670, MIAMI FL 33157 |
| Gregory Brauser |
director, officer: President |
4400 BISCAYNE BLVD #850, MIAMI FL 33137 |
| Robert Swayman |
director |
5022 NW 102 DRIVE, CORAL SPRINGS FL 33076 |
| Angela Courtin |
director |
3101 COLBY AVENEUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90066 |
| Frank E Jaumot |
director |
190 SE 19TH AVENUE, POMPANO BEACH FL 33060 |
| Barrett Robert J Iii |
director |
2075 REGENTS BLVD, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33409 |
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