Genesee & Wyoming (Genesee & Wyoming) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1996. Start your Free Trial

What is Genesee & Wyoming Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Genesee & Wyoming Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Genesee & Wyoming Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Genesee & Wyoming's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Genesee & Wyoming (Genesee & Wyoming) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Genesee & Wyoming Inc (NYSE:GWR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

20 West Avenue, Darien, CT, USA, 06820

Website

http://www.gwrr.com

Genesee & Wyoming manages one of the largest portfolios of short-line/regional freight railroads in North America. About 58% of revenue comes from its core North American short-line business, while its rail lines in Australia make up 14%. Roughly 28% comes from its Europe/U.K. division, which includes its European heavy haul and intermodal operations (Freightliner) that were acquired in early 2015.

Executives

Albert J Neupaver	director
Hunter C Smith	director	C/O GENESEE & WYOMING INC., 20 WEST AVENUE, DARIEN CT 06820
Richard Harold Bott	director	34 ISLAND DRIVE, RYE NY 10580
J H Pyne	director
Oivind Lorentzen	director	C/O SEACOR SMIT, INC., 460 PARK AVENUE 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Mark A Scudder	director	411 S. 13TH STREET, SUITE 200, LINCOLN NE 68508
Cynthia Lynn Hostetler	director	C/O EDGEN MURRAY CORPORATION, 18444 HIGHLAND ROAD, BATON ROUGE LA 70809
Ann N Reese	director	C/O GENESEE & WYOMING INC., 66 FIELD POINT ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06901
David A Brown	officer: Chief Operating Officer	GENESEE & WYOMING INC., 66 FIELD POINT ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830
Hans Michael Norkus	director	OVERLAND STORAGE, INC., 4820 OVERLAND AVENUE, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Robert M Melzer	director	61 MONMOUTH ST., ., BROOKLINE MA 02446-5605
Tc Group V, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVE., N.W., SUITE 220S, WASHINGTON DC 20004
Tc Group Cayman Investment Holdings, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WALKERS CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, 190 ELGIN AVENUE, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9001
Carlyle Group Inc.	10 percent owner	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20004
Carlyle Holdings Ii L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP L.P., 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004-2505