Garrett Motion (Garrett Motion) Predictability Rank

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What is Garrett Motion Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Garrett Motion Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Garrett Motion (Garrett Motion) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Garrett Motion Inc (NAS:GTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

G02:Germany

Address

La Piece 16, Rolle, CHE, 1180

Website

https://www.garrettmotion.com

Garrett Motion Inc designs, manufactures and sells engineered turbocharger and electric-boosting technologies for light and commercial vehicle original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and the vehicle independent aftermarket, as well as automotive software solutions. The company is a technology leader with expertise in delivering products across gasoline, diesel, natural gas and electrified powertrains. The company also sells its technologies in the aftermarket through its distribution network.

Executives

Centerbridge Special Credit Partners Iii-flex, L.p.	10 percent owner	375 PARK AVENUE, 12TH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10152
Cyrus Capital Partners, L.p.	10 percent owner	65 EAST 55 STREET, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Pierre Barthelet	officer: SVP, Marketing & Prod Mgmt	C/O GARRETT MOTION INC., LA PIECE 16, ROLLE V8 1180
Baupost Group Llc/ma	10 percent owner	10 ST JAMES AVE, SUITE 1700, BOSTON MA 02116
Cscp Iii Cayman Gp Ltd.	10 percent owner	375 PARK AVENUE, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10152
Baupost Group Gp, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	10 ST. JAMES AVENUE, SUITE 1700, BOSTON MA 02116
Seth A Klarman	10 percent owner	10 ST JAMES AVENUE, STE 1700, BOSTON MA 02116
Centerbridge Credit Gp Investors, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	375 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10152
Centerbridge Special Credit Partners General Partner Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	375 PARK AVENUE, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10152
Ccp Iii Cayman Gp Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O CENTERBRIDGE PARTNERS, L.P., 375 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10152
Centerbridge Credit Cayman Gp, Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O CENTERBRIDGE PARTNERS, L.P., 375 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10152
Centerbridge Credit Partners Master, L.p.	10 percent owner	375 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10152
Centerbridge Credit Partners Offshore General Partner, L.p.	10 percent owner	375 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10152
Jeffrey Aronson	10 percent owner	375 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10152
Kevin Mahony	director	375 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10152