Grocery Outlet Holding (Grocery Outlet Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is Grocery Outlet Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Grocery Outlet Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Grocery Outlet Holding Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Grocery Outlet Holding (Grocery Outlet Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (NAS:GO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5650 Hollis Street, Emeryville, CA, USA, 94608

Website

https://www.groceryoutlet.com

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp is a grocery store operator in the United States. Its flexible buying model allows them to offer quality, name-brand opportunistic products at prices generally 40% to 70% below those of conventional retailers. The stores are run by Entrepreneurial independent operators which create a neighborhood feel through personalized customer service and a localized product offering.

Executives

Thomas F Herman	director	C/O GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP., 5650 HOLLIS STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Lindberg Eric J. Jr.	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP., 56560 HOLLIS STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Pamela B. Burke	officer: CAO, GC & Secretary	C/O GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP., 5650 HOLLIS STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Charles Bracher	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP., 5650 HOLLIS STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Erik D. Ragatz	director	ONE MARITIME PLAZA, 12TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Luke D Thompson	officer: SVP, GC and Secretary	C/O GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP, 5650 HOLLIS STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Calvin Chung	officer: See Remarks	C/O GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP., 5650 HOLLIS STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Sheedy Robert Joseph Jr.	officer: President	C/O GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP., 5650 HOLLIS STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Lindsay E. Gray	officer: VP Corporate Controller	C/O GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP., 5650 HOLLIS STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Steven K. Wilson	officer: SVP, Purchasing	C/O GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP., 5650 HOLLIS STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Andrea Renee Bortner	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP., 5650 HOLLIS STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Jeffrey York	director	C/O GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP., 5650 HOLLIS STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Brian Mcandrews	officer: See Remarks	C/O GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP., 5650 HOLLIS STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Norman S Matthews	director	650 MADISON AVENUE, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Read S. Macgregor Jr.	director, officer: Vice Chairman	C/O GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP., 5650 HOLLIS STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608