Genelux (Genelux) Predictability Rank

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What is Genelux Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Genelux Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Genelux (Genelux) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Genelux Corp (NAS:GNLX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2625 Townsgate Road, Suite 230, Westlake Village, CA, USA, 91361

Website

https://www.genelux.com

Genelux Corp is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. The company focuses on developing next-generation oncolytic viral immunotherapies for patients suffering from aggressive or difficult-to-treat solid tumor types. Its pipeline products include Olvi-Vec (olvimulogene nanivacirepvec) and others.

Executives

Tony Yu	officer: VP, Clinical Trial Operations	C/O GENELUX CORPORATION, 2625 TOWNSGATE ROAD, SUITE 230, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
James L Tyree	director	100 ABBOTT PARK ROAD, ABBOTT PARK IL 60064-6400
John Thomas	director	C/O GENELUX CORPORATION, 2625 TOWNSGATE ROAD, SUITE 230, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Aladar Szalay	10 percent owner	C/O GENELUX CORPORATION, 2625 TOWNSGATE ROAD, SUITE 230, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Sean Ryder	officer: General Counsel	C/O GENELUX CORPORATION, 2625 TOWNSGATE ROAD, SUITE 230, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
John W Smither	director	C/O KYTHERA BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 27200 WEST AGOURA ROAD, SUITE 200, CALABASAS CA 91301
Lourie S. Zak	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O GENELUX CORPORATION, 2625 TOWNSGATE ROAD, SUITE 230, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Thomas Zindrick	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O GENELUX CORPORATION, 2625 TOWNSGATE RD., STE. 230, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Joseph Cappello	officer: VP, Pharmaceutical Development	C/O GENELUX CORPORATION, 2625 TOWNSGATE ROAD, SUITE 230, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Doug Samuelson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O GENELUX CORPORATION, 2625 TOWNSGATE RD., STE 230, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Caroline Jewett	officer: Head of Quality	C/O GENELUX CORPORATION, 2625 TOWNSGATE RD., STE 230, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Ralph Smalling	officer: Head of Regulatory	C/O GENELUX CORPORATION, 2625 TOWNSGATE RD., STE 230, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Qian Zhang	officer: Associate VP, Research	C/O GENELUX CORPORATION, 2625 TOWNSGATE ROAD, SUITE 230, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Mary Mirabelli	director	C/O GENELUX CORPORATION, 2625 TOWNSGATE ROAD, SUITE 230, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Paul Scigalla	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O GENELUX CORPORATION, 2625 TOWNSGATE ROAD, SUITE 230, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361