Greenwich LifeSciences (Greenwich LifeSciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Greenwich LifeSciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Greenwich LifeSciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Greenwich LifeSciences (Greenwich LifeSciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Greenwich LifeSciences Inc (NAS:GLSI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3992 Bluebonnet Drive, Building 14, Stafford, TX, USA, 77477

Website

https://www.greenwichlifesciences.com

Greenwich LifeSciences Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development of GP2, an immunotherapy to prevent breast cancer recurrences in patients who have previously undergone surgery. Its Product Candidates include; GP2, a HER2/neu transmembrane peptide that elicits a targeted immune response against HER2/neu-expressing cancers, GM-CSF Immunoadjuvant has been shown to enhance monocyte and neutrophil cytotoxicity against melanoma tumor cells and to enhance activity-dependent cellular cytotoxicity of monocytes and neutrophils against targets coated with the anti-ganglioside antibodies, and Cancer immunotherapy seeks to stimulate an individual's immune system to selectively attack cancer cells in order to inhibit the spread of cancer.

Executives

Snehal Patel	director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	2311 SPARTAN TRAIL, SUGAR LAND TX 77479
Jaye Thompson	officer: VPC AND REGULATORY AFFAIRS	2408 TIMBERLOCH PLACE, B-7, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Frank Joseph Daugherty	director, officer: CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER	2311 SPARTAN TRAIL, SUGAR LAND TX 77479
Kenneth Hallock	director	2311 SPARTAN TRAIL, SUGAR LAND TX 77479
David Mcwilliams	director	2575 WEST BELLFORT STREET, HOUSTON TX 77054-9816
Eric Rothe	director	2311 SPARTAN TRAIL, SUGAR LAND TX 77479
Kinnary Patel	10 percent owner	3992 BLUEBONNET DR., BUILDING 14, STAFFORD TX 77477
Panjaj Amrit Patel	10 percent owner	50726 LAKESIDE DRIVE, GRANGER IN 46530