GlassBridge Enterprises (GlassBridge Enterprises) Predictability Rank

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What is GlassBridge Enterprises Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

GlassBridge Enterprises Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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GlassBridge Enterprises (GlassBridge Enterprises) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » GlassBridge Enterprises Inc (OTCPK:GLAE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

18 East 50th Street, FL7, New York, NY, USA, 10022

Website

https://www.glassbridge.com

GlassBridge Enterprises Inc is a holding company in the United States. It is involved in the asset management business that comprises investment advisory services to third-party investors through managed funds, as well as separately managed accounts. The firm operates in two segments: Asset Management Business, through AAM, and a sports investment platform, through SportBLX-both owned by Adara.

Executives

Tacora Capital Lp	10 percent owner	2505 PECOS STREET, AUSTIN TX 78703
Keri Findley	director, 10 percent owner	214 BRAZILIAN AVENUE, SUITE 200-A, PALM BEACH FL 33480
Claire Councill	director	214 BRAZILIAN AVENUE, SUITE 200-A, PALM BEACH FL 33480
Clinton Group Inc	director, other: See remarks	510 MADISON AVE, 8TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Robert Searing	director	19 DUCHARME LANE, GREENLAWN NY 11740
George E. Hall	director	C/O CLINTON GROUP INC, 510 MADISON AVE., 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
De Perio Joseph A	director	C/O OVERLAND STORAGE, INC., 9112 SPECTRUM CENTER BLVD, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Danny Zheng	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1099 HELMO AVE. N., SUITE 250, OAKDALE MN 55128
Daniel Strauss	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O CLINTON GROUP, INC, 9 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Robert G Torricelli	director	1099 HELMO AVE., N., SUITE 250, OAKDALE MN 55128
Tavis J. Morello	officer: General Counsel	1099 HELMO AVE., N., SUITE 250, OAKDALE MN 55128
Clinton Special Opportunities Master Fund Ltd.	director, other: See remarks	C/O CLINTON GROUP INC., 510 MADISON AVE, 8TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Alex Spiro	director	25 TUDOR CITY PLACE APT 1011, NEW YORK NY 10017
Donald H Putnam	director
Tracy B Mckibben	director	100 RIVERSIDE BOULEVARD, #3S, NEW YORK NY 10069