GD Culture Group (GD Culture Group) Predictability Rank

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What is GD Culture Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

GD Culture Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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GD Culture Group (GD Culture Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » GD Culture Group Ltd (NAS:GDC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No.165-171 Wan Chai Road, Flat 1512, 15th Floor, Lucky Centre,, Wan Chai, HKG, 610047

Website

http://www.ccnctech.com

GD Culture Group Ltd is a holding company with no material operations of its own. It conducts business through Shanghai Highlight Media Co. Ltd. Highlight Media, is an integrated marketing service agency, focusing on serving businesses in China in connection with brand management, image building, public relations, social media management and event planning.

Executives

Hongxiang Yu	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Vice President	BEIHUANZHONG ROAD JUNAN COUNTY, SHANDONG F4 276600
Shuang Zhang	director, officer: vice president	NO 119 SOUTH ZHAOJUESI ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, ROOM 1, CHENGHUA DISTRICT, CHENGDU SICHUAN F4 610047
Yajing Li	director	NO 2020 ZHONGSHANXI ROAD, ROOM 502A40, SHANGHAI F4 200030
Wei Xu	director, 10 percent owner	18 QINGNIAN WEST ROAD, HONGQIAO BUILDING WEST, 4TH FLOOR, NANTONG, JINAGSU, F4 226001
Yimin Jin	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	BEIHUANZHONG JUNAN COURT, SHANDONG F4 276600
Qihai Wang	director	NO 2020 ZHONGSHANXI ROAD, ROOM 502A40, SHANGHAI F4 200030
Xiaoyan Shen	officer: CFO and Secretary	A-101 98 HUANGHAI ROAD TEDA, TIANJIN F4 300457
Arthur B Drogue	director	C/O SPAR GROUP, INC., 333 WESTCHESTER AVE, SOUTH BLDG, STE 204, WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
Kurt Jetta	director	1615 SOUTH CONGRESS AVENUE, SUITE 103, DELRAY BEACH FL 33445
Chuanliu Ni	director, officer: Co-Chair & CEO	A-101 98 HUANGHAI ROAD TEDA, TIANJIN F4 300457
Chenchen Zhang	director	NO. 319 XIANXIA RD, FAREAS INTERNATIONAL PLAZA BLD A, RM 409, SHANGHAI F4 0000
Jiazhen Li	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chair	A101 HANGZHENG STREET CITY INDUSTRY PARK, NO. 21 JIEFANG AVENUE, QIAOKOU DISTRICT, WUHAN, HUBEI F4 430030
Yaqing Hu	director	NO. 319 XIANXIA RD, FAREAST, INTERNATIONAL PLAZA -BLD A, RM 409, SHANGHAI F4 0000
Hui Zhu	director	NO. 319 XIANXIA RD FAREAST, INTERNATIONAL PLAZA BLD A, RM 409, SHANGHAI F4 0000
Xiaonian Zhang	director, officer: President and Director	NO. 319 XIANXIA RD FAREAST, INTERNATIONAL PLAZA - BLD A, RM 409, SHANGHAI F4 00000