GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Global Clean Energy Holdings Inc (OTCPK:GCEH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Global Clean Energy Holdings (Global Clean Energy Holdings) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is Global Clean Energy Holdings Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Global Clean Energy Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Global Clean Energy Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Global Clean Energy Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Global Clean Energy Holdings (Global Clean Energy Holdings) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Global Clean Energy Holdings Inc (OTCPK:GCEH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
DTCK LOCL AAGR SANW TAER SDOT SHMP OGAA AQB SISI SZSE:002714 ADM TSN SZSE:300498 BG SHSE:600438 OSL:MOWI OSL:SALM SZSE:000876 ISX:CPIN
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2790 Skypark Drive, Suite 105, Torrance, CA, USA, 90505
Website
https://www.gceholdings.com
Global Clean Energy Holdings Inc is a United States-based renewable feedstocks and finished fuels company. The business model of the company is designed to control all aspects of the value chain, with business anchored in plant science and the other in renewable fuel production. The company contract directly with farmers to grow ultra-low carbon, nonfood, proprietary Camelina crop.
Executives
Nikhil Vasa officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer 2790 SKYPARK DRIVE, SUITE 105, TORRANCE CA 90505
Michael Zilkha 10 percent owner
Antonio D'amico officer: See Remarks 2790 SKYPARK DRIVE, SUITE 105, TORRANCE CA 90505
Exxonmobil Renewables Llc director, 10 percent owner 22777 SPRINGWOODS VILLAGE PARKWAY, SPRING TX 77389
Amy K. Wood director 2790 SKYPARK DRIVE, SUITE 105, TORRANCE CA 90505
Edward Nicholas Jones director 2790 SKYPARK DRIVE, SUITE 105, TORRANCE CA 90505
Exxon Mobil Corp director, 10 percent owner 22777 SPRINGWOODS VILLAGE PARKWAY, SPRING TX 77389-1425
Michael Karst officer: Vice President 2790 SKYPARK DRIVE, SUITE 105, TORRANCE CA 90505
Phyllis E. Currie director 2790 SKYPARK DRIVE, SUITE 105, TORRANCE CA 90505
Susan L. Anhalt director 2790 SKYPARK DRIVE, SUITE 105, TORRANCE CA 90505
Jerald S. Feitelson officer: VP, Chief Scientific Officer 2790 SKYPARK DRIVE, SUITE 105, TORRANCE CA 90505
Ralph J Goehring officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O BERRY PETROLEUM CO, 5201 TREUXTUN AVE STE 300, BAKERSFIELD CA 93309
Noah Verleun officer: EVP - Development % Regulatory 2709 SKYPARK DRIVE, SUITE 105, TORRANCE CA 90505
Jeffrey S Skoll 10 percent owner C/O EBAY INC, 2145 HAMILTON AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95125
Pacific Sequoia Holdings Llc 10 percent owner CAPRICORN INVESTMENT GROUP LLC, 250 UNIVERSITY AVE, SUITE 300, PALO ALTO CA 94301

Global Clean Energy Holdings (Global Clean Energy Holdings) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Global Clean Energy Holdings, Inc. Issues Letter to Shareholders

By Marketwired Marketwired • 01-04-2021

EarthDaily Agro and Global Clean Energy Announce Partnership to Grow Adoption of Camelina-Based Renewable Fuel

By PRNewswire • 07-18-2023