What is Gain Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Gain Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Gain Therapeutics (Gain Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
4800 Montgomery Lane, Suite 220, Bethesda, MD, USA, 20814
Gain Therapeutics Inc is a biotechnology company developing novel small molecule therapeutics to treat diseases across, several therapeutics areas, including, lysosomal storage disorders, central nervous system disorders, metabolic disorders and oncology. The company has filed four patent applications for novel small molecule drug candidates that are Structurally Targeted Allosteric Regulators (STARs). The company derives revenues from collaboration and licensing agreements.
Executives
| Matthias Alder |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
C/O MICROMET, INC., 6707 DEMOCRACY BLVD., STE. 505, BETHESDA MD 28017 |
| Charles Evan Ballantyne |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
27 HEARTHSTONE ROAD, HOPKINTON MA 01748 |
| Gianluca Fuggetta |
officer: Principal Accounting Officer |
C/O GAIN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 4800 MONTGOMERY LANE, SUITE 220, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
| Eric I Richman |
director |
C/O REV CAPITAL II, LLC, 9740 SORREL AVE, POTOMAC MD 20854 |
| Salvatore Calabrese |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O GAIN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 4800 HAMPDEN LANE, SUITE 200, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
| Hans Peter Hasler |
director |
C/O MINERVA NEUROSCIENCES, INC., 1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 284, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
| Gwen A Melincoff |
director |
C/O TOBIRA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 701 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Jeffrey Scott Riley |
director |
C/O ADEONA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC, 3930 VARSITY DRIVE, ANN ARBOR MI 48108 |
| Goldstein Dov A Md |
director |
|
| Khalid Islam |
director |
C/O IMMUNOMEDICS, INC., 300 THE AMERICAN ROAD, MORRIS PLAINS NJ 07950 |
| Claude Nicaise |
director |
215 FIRST STREET, SUITE 415, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Manolo Bellotto |
officer: President and General Manager |
C/O GAIN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 4800 HAMPDEN LANE, SUITE 200, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
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