Gladstone Investment (Gladstone Investment) Predictability Rank

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What is Gladstone Investment Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gladstone Investment Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Gladstone Investment (Gladstone Investment) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Gladstone Investment Corp (NAS:GAIN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1G3:Germany

Address

1521 Westbranch Drive, Suite 100, McLean, VA, USA, 22102

Website

https://www.gladstoneinvestment.com

Gladstone Investment Corp is a business development company. The company's investment objective is to invest achieve and grow current income by investing in debt securities of established businesses that will provide stable earnings and cash flow, and provide its stockholders with long-term capital appreciation by investing in equity securities. The company's investment sectors include Business service/distribution, Consumer products, and manufacturing. Its portfolio consists of the following industries Conglomerate Services, Home and Office Furnishings, Housewares, Durable Consumer Products, Leisure, Motion Pictures, Entertainment, Conglomerate Manufacturing, Chemicals, Telecommunications, Aerospace and Defense, and others. Its investment activities are carried across the United States.

Executives

Rachael Z. Easton	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1521 WESTBRANCH DRIVE, SUITE 100, MCLEAN VA 22102
Dullum David A R	officer: President	C/O GLADSTONE CAPITAL CORP, 1521 WESTBRANCH DRIVE SUITE 200, MCLEAN VA 22102
Walter H Wilkinson	director	C/O RF MICRO DEVICES, INC., 7628 THORNDIKE ROAD, GREENSBORO NC 27409
Paula Novara	director	1521 WESTBRANCH DRIVE, SUITE 100, MCLEAN VA 22102
Jennifer A Smith	officer: Chief Valuation Officer	1521 WESTBRANCH DRIVE, SUITE 100, MCLEAN VA 22102
Terry Lee Brubaker	director, officer: COO	C/O GLADSTONE CAPITAL CORP, 1521 WESTBRANCH DRIVE SUITE 200, MCLEAN VA 22102
Julia Ryan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1521 WESTBRANCH DRIVE, SUITE 100, MCLEAN VA 22102
Michael Licalsi	other: Affiliate of External Advisor	1521 WESTBRANCH DR., MCLEAN VA 22102
David Gladstone	director, officer: CEO	1521 WESTBRANCH DRIVE, SUITE 200, MCLEAN VA 22102
Caren D Merrick	director	1521 WESTBRANCH, SUITE 100, MCLEAN VA 22102
David Hibbert Watson	officer: CFO	C/O ARGAN, INC., ONE CHURCH STREET, SUITE 201, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Terry Earhart	director	1521 WESTBRANCH DRIVE, SUITE 200, MCLEAN VA 22102
Paul W Adelgren	director	C/O GLADSTONE CAPITAL CORP, 1521 WESTBRANCH DRIVE SUITE 200, MCLEAN VA 22102
Melissa Morrison	other: Affiliate of External Adviser	1521 WESTBRANCH DRIVE, SUITE 200, MCLEAN VA 22102
Gerard Mead	director	1521 WESTBRANCH DRIVE, SUITE 200, MCLEAN VA 22102