FitLife Brands (FitLife Brands) Predictability Rank

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What is FitLife Brands Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FitLife Brands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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FitLife Brands (FitLife Brands) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » FitLife Brands Inc (NAS:FTLF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

QO8:Germany

Address

5214 South 136th Street, Omaha, NE, USA, 68137

Website

https://www.fitlifebrands.com

FitLife Brands Inc is a provider of proprietary nutritional supplements for health-conscious consumers. The company markets and sells its products under NDS, PMD, Siren labs, Core active, Metis nutrition, Isatori and Biogenetic laboratories brand names. Its product portfolio consists of sports nutrition, energy, and sports drink products, meal replacement products and weight loss products. The firm derives its revenue from product sales. Its product categories include Natural & Organic Foods, Functional Foods, Natural & Organic Personal Care and Household Products and Supplements.

Executives

Jakob York	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O FITLIFE BRANDS, INC., 5214 S. 136TH STREET, OMAHA NE 68137
Ryan Patrick John Phillip	officer: Chief Retail Officer	16301 FLINT ST, OVERLAND PARK KS 66221
Todd Ordal	director	15000 W. 6TH AVENUE, SUITE 202, GOLDEN CO 80401
Lewis Jaffe	director	201 MERRITT 7 CORPORATE PARK, NORWALK CT 06851
Judd Dayton	director	878 S. DENTON TAP RD., SUITE 220, COPPELL TX 75019
Susan Kinnaman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5214 S. 136TH STREET, OMAHA NE 68137
Seth Yakatan	director	231 NORMAN AVENUE, BROOKLYN NY 11222
Stephen D. Adele	director, officer: CEO, iSatori, Inc.	15000 W. 6TH AVENUE, SUITE 202, GOLDEN CO 80401
Jeffrey N. Greenblatt	10 percent owner	14 EAST 60TH STREET, SUITE 600, NEW YORK NY 10022
Grant Robert Dawson	director	C/O GLOWPOINT, INC., 430 MOUNTAIN AVENUE, SUITE 301, MURRAY HILL NJ 07974
Fadi M. Aramouni	director	3017 JEANIE LANE, MANHATTAN KS 66502
Jason T Adelman	10 percent owner	900 PARK AVENUE, APARTMENT 15A, NEW YORK NY 10021
Michael S Abrams	officer: Chief Financial Officer	64 RAMSHEAD ROAD, RAYNHAM MA 02767
John S Wilson	director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	11011 Q STREET, BUILDING A, SUITE 106, OMAHA NE 68137
Landers Elorian Connard	director