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Fathom Holdings (Fathom Holdings) Predictability Rank


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What is Fathom Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fathom Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Fathom Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Fathom Holdings (Fathom Holdings) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Fathom Holdings Inc (NAS:FTHM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
FLJ LODE RFL OMH CPTP BRST NYC MDJH LRHC HWTR CSGP CBRE XMAD:CLNX BEKE TSE:8830 HKSE:01972 OSTO:AKEL D SGX:9CI HKSE:01997 MIL:INW
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2000 Regency Parkway Drive, Suite 300, Cary, NC, USA, 27518
Website
https://www.fathomrealty.com
Fathom Holdings Inc is a national, technology-driven, real estate services platform integrating residential brokerage, mortgage, title, insurance, and Software as a Service offerings to brokerages and agents by leveraging our proprietary cloud-based software, intelliAgent. The company has three reportable segments namely Real Estate Brokerage; Mortgage; and Technology.
Executives
Stephen H. Murray director C/O FATHOM HOLDINGS INC., 2000 REGENCY PARKWAY DRIVE, SUITE 300, CARY NC 27518
Scott N Flanders director PLAYBOY ENT., INC. - H. SHAPIRO, 680 N LAKE SHORE DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60611
Joshua Harley director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O FATHOM HOLDINGS INC., 211 NEW EDITION COURT, SUITE 211, CARY NC 27511
Jennifer B. Venable director C/O FATHOM HOLDINGS INC., 211 NEW EDITION COURT, SUITE 211, RALEIGH NC 27511
Ravila Gupta director 211 NEW EDITION COURT, SUITE 211, CARY NC 27511
Glenn A. Sampson director C/O FATHOM HOLDINGS INC., 211 NEW EDITION COURT, SUITE 211, CARY NC 27511
Marco Fregenal director, officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O FATHOM HOLDINGS INC., 211 NEW EDITION COURT, SUITE 211, CARY NC 27511
Samantha Giuggio officer: Chief Broker Officer C/O FATHOM HOLDINGS INC., 211 NEW EDITION COURT, SUITE 211, CARY NC 27511
Christopher D. Bennett director C/O FATHOM HOLDINGS INC., 211 NEW EDITION COURT, SUITE 211, CARY NC 27511
Jeffrey H Coats director C/O AUTOBYTEL INC., 18872 MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 200, IRVINE CA 92612
David C. Hood director C/O GUNDERSON DETTMER, ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, SUITE 900, BOSTON MA 02210