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Franklin Street Properties (Franklin Street Properties) Predictability Rank


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What is Franklin Street Properties Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Franklin Street Properties Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Franklin Street Properties Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Franklin Street Properties's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Franklin Street Properties (Franklin Street Properties) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Franklin Street Properties Corp (AMEX:FSP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CIO ONL KBSR PSTL OPI CMCT NLOP PKST BDN HPP ARE BXP XPAR:GFC TSE:8951 XMAD:MRL VNO ASX:DXS SGX:N2IU TSE:8952 BOM:542602
Traded in Other Exchanges
WVH:Germany
Address
401 Edgewater Place, Suite 200, Wakefield, MA, USA, 01880
Website
https://www.fspreit.com
Franklin Street Properties Corp is a real estate investment trust. The company is focused on commercial real estate investments in office markets. The company's operations include rental income from real estate leasing, interest income from secured loans made on office properties, property dispositions, and fee income from asset/property management and development. Franklin Street markets Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, Houston, and Minneapolis. It owns a portfolio of real estate consisting of approximately 32 properties.
Executives
Brian N Hansen director CONFLUENCE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC, 20 ALLEN AVENUE, SUITE 300, ST. LOUIS MO 63119
Jonathan Bennett Odle 10 percent owner 3622 ENDEAVOR AVENUE, SUITE 101, COLUMBIA MO 65201
Dennis J Mcgillicuddy director 1221 S. TAMIAMI TRAIL, SARASOTA FL 34239
Wilkins Milton P Jr director 401 EDGEWATER PLACE, STE 200, WAKEFIELD MA 01880
Kenneth A Hoxsie director 401 EDGEWATER PL, STE 200, WAKEFIELD MA 01880
Georgia Murray director 433 SHAWMUT AVE, BOSTON MA 02118
John N Burke director 175 DERBY STREET, SUITE 42, HINGHAM MA 02043
Kathryn P O'neil director 401 EDGEWATER PL, STE 200, WAKEFIELD MA 01880
John G Demeritt officer: Senior Vice President-Finance 401 EDGEWATER PLACE, STE. 200, WAKEFIELD MA 01880
George J Carter director, officer: CEO 401 EDGEWATER PLACE, SUITE 200, WAKEFIELD MA 01880
Eriel Anchondo officer: SVP/Operations 401 EDGEWATER PL, STE. 200, WAKEFIELD MA 01880
Jeffrey B Carter officer: Executive Vice President 401 EDGEWATER PLACE, SUITE 200, WAKEFIELD MA 01880
John F Donahue officer: Executive Vice President 401 EDGEWATER PL, STE 200, WAKEFIELD MA 01880
Barry Silverstein other: former director 2500 S. OCEAN BLVD., #503, BOCA RATON FL 33432
Barbara J Corinha director, officer: VP, COO, Treasurer & Secretary 401 EDGEWATER PLACE, SUITE 200, WAKEFIELD MA 01880

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