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MeadWestvaco (FRA:MVA) Predictability Rank


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What is MeadWestvaco Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


MeadWestvaco Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

MeadWestvaco Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of MeadWestvaco's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


MeadWestvaco (FRA:MVA) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
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Address
MeadWestvaco Corp is a Delaware corporation formed in 2001 following the merger of Westvaco Corporation and The Mead Corporation. It is a packaging company that provides packaging solutions to many of the world's brands in the healthcare, personal and beauty care, food, beverage, tobacco, media and entertainment, and home and garden industries. The business segments are Food & Beverage, Home, Health & Beauty, Industrial, Specialty Chemicals, and Community Development and Land Management. The Food & Beverage segment produces packaging materials, and designs and produces packaging solutions for the global food, food service, beverage, dairy and tobacco end markets, as well as paperboard for commercial printing. For the global food market, the segment develops and produces materials and solutions that are used to package frozen food, dry goods, ready-to-eat meals, hot and cold drinks, and various shelf-stable dairy products. For the global beverage market, the segment has a fully integrated business model, including high-performance paperboard, carton design and converting operations, as well as beverage packaging machinery. The Home, Health & Beauty segment designs and produces packaging solutions for the global personal care, fragrance, home care, lawn and garden, prescription drug and healthcare end markets. For the global beauty and personal care market, the segment produces pumps for fragrances, lotions, creams and soaps, flip-top and applicator closures for bath and body products and lotions, and paperboard and plastic packaging for hair and skin care products. For the global home and garden market, the segment produces trigger sprayers for surface cleaners and fabric care, aerosol actuators for air fresheners, hose-end sprayers for lawn and garden maintenance, and spouted and applicator closures for a variety of other home and garden products. The Industrial segment designs and produces corrugated packaging solutions, for produce, meat, consumer products and bulk goods. In Brazil, where the business is based, the integrated business includes forestlands, paperboard mills and corrugated box plants. This segment also includes operations in India, which develop corrugated packaging materials as well as corrugated packaging solutions for Indian fresh produce. In Brazil, the segment manufactures high-quality virgin kraftliner and recycled material medium paperboards, and converts the board to corrugated packaging at four box plants across the country. The Specialty Chemicals segment manufactures, markets and distributes specialty chemicals derived from sawdust and other byproducts of the papermaking process in North America, Europe, South America and Asia. Products include performance chemicals derived from pine chemicals used in printing inks, asphalt paving and adhesives as well as in the agricultural, paper and petroleum industries. This segment also produces activated carbon products used in gas vapor emission control systems

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