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Life Technologies (FRA:IVN) Predictability Rank


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What is Life Technologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Life Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Life Technologies Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Life Technologies (FRA:IVN) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
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Address
Life Technologies Corp began operations as a California partnership in 1987 and incorporated in California in 1989. In 1997, the Company reincorporated as a Delaware corporation. On November 21, 2008, Invitrogen Corporation, a predecessor company to Life Technologies, completed the acquisition of Applied Biosystems, Inc. to form a new company called Life Technologies Corporation. The Company is a global life sciences company dedicated to improving the human condition. The Company's systems, consumables and services enable researchers and commercial markets to accelerate scientific exploration, to discoveries and developments that better the quality of life. The Company's products are also used in forensics, food and water testing and other industrial applications. The Company delivers a range of products and services, including systems, instruments, reagents, software, and custom services. Its growing portfolio of products includes innovative technologies for capillary electrophoresis-based sequencing, next generation sequencing, PCR, sample preparation, cell culture, RNA interference analysis, functional genomics research, proteomics and cell biology applications, as well as clinical diagnostic applications, forensics and animal, food, pharmaceutical and water testing analysis. The Company also provides its customers convenient and value-added purchasing options through thousands of sales and service professionals, e-commerce capabilities and onsite supply center solutions. The Company operates is business under three divisions: Molecular Biology Systems ('MBS'), Cell Systems ('CS'), and Genetic Systems ('GS'). The MBS division includes the molecular biology-based technologies, including basic and real-time PCR, RNAi, DNA synthesis, sample prep, transfection, cloning and protein expression profiling, protein analysis and thermo-cycler instrumentation. The CS division includes all product lines used in the study of cell function, including cell culture media and sera, stem cells and related tools, cellular imaging products, antibodies, drug discovery services and cell therapy related products. The GS division includes capillary electrophoresis systems and reagents and next generation sequencing systems and reagents, including the SOLiDTM and Ion TorrentTM systems, as well as reagent kits developed specifically for applied markets, such as forensics and food safety, animal health and pharmaceutical quality monitoring. The Company offers many different products and services and is continually developing and/or acquiring others. Some of its specific product categories include the following: 'High-throughput' gene cloning and expression technology; Pre-cast electrophoresis products; Antibodies; Magnetic beads; Molecular Probes fluorescence-based technologies; Transfection reagents; PCR and Real Time PCR systems and reagents; and RNA Interference reagents. The Company's manufacturing operations require a variety of raw materials, elec

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