Fluence Energy (Fluence Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Fluence Energy Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fluence Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Fluence Energy (Fluence Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Independent Power Producers » Fluence Energy Inc (NAS:FLNC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4601 Fairfax Drive, Suite 600, Arlington, VA, USA, 22203

Website

https://www.fluenceenergy.com

Fluence Energy Inc is enabling the global clean energy transition with market-leading energy storage products and services, and digital applications for renewables and storage. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the Americas.

Executives

Siemens Pension Trust E V	10 percent owner	WITTELSBACHERPLATZ 2, MUNICH GERMANY 2M 80333
Investment Authority Qatar	director, 10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 23224, DOHA S3 QATAR
Michelle Philpot	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	KANA SOFTWARE, INC., 181 CONSTITUTION DR., MENLO PARK CA 94025
Peter Bennett Williams	officer: SVP & CSCMO	2225 W. CHANDLER BLVD., CHANDLER AZ 85224
Carolee Couch	officer: SVP & CSC and MC	C/O FLUENCE ENERGY, INC., 4601 FAIRFAX DRIVE, SUITE 600, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Rebecca Boll	officer: SVP AND Chief Product Officer	C/O FLUENCE ENERGY, INC., 4601 FAIRFAX DRIVE, SUITE 600, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Ricardo Manuel Falu	director	4300 WILSON BLVD, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Manavendra Sial	officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer	77 RIO ROBLES, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Dennis Fehr	officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O FLUENCE ENERGY, INC., 4601 FAIRFAX DRIVE, SUITE 600, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Krishna C Vanka	officer: SVP & Chief Digital Officer	C/O FLUENCE ENERGY, INC., 4601 FAIRFAX DRIVE, SUITE 600, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Julian Nebreda	director	4300 WILSON BLVD., ARLINGTON VA 22203
Tish Mendoza	director	4300 WILSON BOULEVARD, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Seyed Madaeni	officer: Senior VP and CD Officer	C/O FLUENCE ENERGY, INC., 4601 FAIRFAX DRIVE, SUITE 600, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Cynthia A Arnold	director	P O BOX 1461, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440
Herman E Bulls	director	JONES LANG LASALLE, 1801 K STREET NW SUITE 1000, WASHINGTON DC 20006