Evertec (Evertec) Predictability Rank

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What is Evertec Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Evertec Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Evertec Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Evertec (Evertec) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Evertec Inc (NYSE:EVTC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EVTC:Mexico

Address

Cupey Center Building, Road 176, Kilometer 1.3, San Juan, PRI, 00926

Website

https://www.evertecinc.com

Evertec Inc is a transaction processing business in Latin America and the Caribbean. Its business segments are Merchant Acquiring, Payment Services - Puerto Rico & Caribbean, Payment Services - Latin America, and Business Solutions. The company serves a diversified customer base of financial institutions, merchants, corporations and government agencies with mission-critical technology solutions that enable them to issue, process and accept transactions securely. The company derives revenue based on transaction or discount fees or fees based on the number of accounts on file.

Executives

Diego Viglianco	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer	PO BOX 364527, SAN JUAN PR 00936
Paola Perez-surillo	officer: Senior Vice President	PO BOX 364527, SAN JUAN PR 00936-4527
Virginia Gambale	director	C/O JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP., 27-01 QUEENS PLAZA NORTH, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101
Joaquin A. Castrillo-salgado	officer: Vice President of Finance	PO BOX 364527, SAN JUAN PR 00936-4527
Luis A Rodriguez-gonzalez	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	PO BOX 364527, SAN JUAN PR 00936-4527
Morgan M Schuessler	director, officer: President & CEO	PO BOX 364527, SAN JUAN PR 00936-4527
Popular Inc	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 362708, SAN JUAN PR 00936-2708
Guillermo Rospigliosi	officer: Executive Vice President	PO BOX 364527, SAN JUAN PR 00936-4527
Castillo Rodrigo Del	officer: Executive Vice President	PO BOX 364527, SAN JUAN PR 00936-4527
Kelly Hefner Barrett	director	4630 WYNMEADE PARK, MARIETTA GA 30067
Philip E. Steurer	officer: Chief Operating Officer	PO BOX 364527, SAN JUAN PR 00936-4527
Miguel Vizcarrondo	officer: Executive Vice President	PO BOX 364527, SAN JUAN PR 00936-4527
Frank D. D'angelo	director	PO BOX 364527, SAN JUAN PR 00936-4527
Carlos J. Ramirez	officer: Executive Vice President	PO BOX 364527, SAN JUAN PR 00936-4527
Ivan Pagan	director	PO BOX 364527, SAN JUAN PR 00936-4527