Evergy (Evergy) Predictability Rank

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What is Evergy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Evergy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Evergy Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Evergy (Evergy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Evergy Inc (NAS:EVRG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

LNT AGR PNW OGE CMS CNP IDA POR AEE PPL NEE SO DUK LSE:NG. AEP PCG D BOM:532555 EXC PEG

Traded in Other Exchanges

3E7:Germany E1VR34:Brazil

Address

1200 Main Street, Kansas City, MO, USA, 64105

Website

https://investors.evergy.com

Evergy is a regulated electric utility serving eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Major operating subsidiaries include Evergy Metro, Evergy Kansas Central, Evergy Missouri West, and Evergy Transmission Co. The utility has a combined rate base of approximately $19 billion, about half in Kansas and the rest split between Missouri and federal jurisdiction. Evergy is one of the largest wind energy suppliers in the U.S.

Executives

Mary L. Landrieu	director	100 CENTURYLINK DRIVE, MONROE LA 71203
Neal A Sharma	director	C/O EVERGY, INC., 1200 MAIN STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Lesley Lissette Elwell	officer: SVP & CHIEF HR OFFICER	C/O EVERGY, INC., 1200 MAIN STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Sandra Aj Lawrence	director	C/O EVERGY, INC., 1200 MAIN STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Kevin E. Bryant	officer: EVP - CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER	C/O EVERGY, INC., 1200 MAIN STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
James Scarola	director	C/O EVERGY, INC., 1200 MAIN STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Charles L King	officer: SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER	C/O EVERGY, INC., 1200 MAIN STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
C John Wilder	director	ENTERGY CORP, 639 LOYOLA AVENUE, NEW ORLEANS LA 70113
Kirkland B Andrews	director	C/O EVERGY, INC., 1200 MAIN STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
David A Campbell	director, officer: PRESIDENT AND CEO	C/O EVERGY, INC., 1200 MAIN STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Thomas D Hyde	director	C/O EVERGY, INC., 1200 MAIN STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Anthony D Somma	officer: EVP - CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O EVERGY, INC., 1200 MAIN STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Charles A. Caisley	officer: SVP - MKTG & PA & CHIEF CO	C/O EVERGY, INC., 1200 MAIN STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Paul Keglevic	director	STELLUS CAPITAL, 10000 MEMORIAL DRIVE STE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Heather A Humphrey	officer: SVP - GEN COUNSEL, CORP SEC	C/O EVERGY, INC., 1200 MAIN STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105