Engagesmart (Engagesmart) Predictability Rank

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What is Engagesmart Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Engagesmart Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Engagesmart Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Engagesmart (Engagesmart) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Engagesmart Inc (NYSE:ESMT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

HCP EEFT SQSP VRNS FIVN BOX TDC FLYW STNE WIX MSFT ORCL ADBE PANW SNPS VMW FTNT CRWD PLTR SQ

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

30 Braintree Hill Office Park, Suite 101, Braintree, MA, USA, 02184

Website

https://www.engagesmart.com

Engagesmart Inc is a provider of vertically tailored customer engagement software and integrated payments capabilities. It offers single instance, multi-tenant, true Software-as-a-Service vertical solutions that are designed to simplify customers' engagement with clients by driving digital adoption and self-service. Its operating segments include Enterprise Solutions and SMB Solution.

Executives

Kevin William O'brien	officer: See Remarks	C/O ENGAGESMART, LLC, 30 BRAINTREE HILL OFFICE PARK, SUITE 101, BRAINTREE MA 02184
Seltzer Jonathan Cole	officer: President, SMB Solutions	C/O ENGAGESMART, LLC, 30 BRAINTREE HILL OFFICE PARK, SUITE 101, BRAINTREE MA 02184
Patrick F Donovan	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O ENGAGESMART, LLC, 30 BRAINTREE HILL OFFICE PARK, SUITE 101, BRAINTREE MA 02184
Robert Paul Bennett	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ENGAGESMART, LLC, 30 BRAINTREE HILL OFFICE PARK, SUITE 101, BRAINTREE MA 02184
Cassandra Hudson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CARBONITE, INC., 2 AVENUE DE LAFAYETTE, BOSTON MA 02111
General Atlantic Partners (bermuda) Eu, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O GENERAL ATLANTIC SERVICE COMPANY LP, 55 EAST 52ND STREET, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10055
General Atlantic, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	55 EAST 52ND STREET, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10055
Summit Partners Growth Equity Fund Viii-a, L.p.	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
General Atlantic Genpar (bermuda), L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O GENERAL ATLANTIC SERVICE COMPANY,LLC, 55 EAST 52ND ST. 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10055
Scott C Collins	10 percent owner	C/O SUMMIT PARTNERS, 222 BERKELEY ST 18TH FL, BOSTON MA 02116
General Atlantic Genpar, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	55 EAST 52ND STREET, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10055
Diego A Rodriguez	director	C/O ENGAGESMART, LLC, 30 BRAINTREE HILL OFFICE PARK, SUITE 101, BRAINTREE MA 02184
Scott N Semel	officer: General Counsel
Summit Partners Entrepreneur Advisors Fund I, L.p.	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Raphael Osnoss	director	C/O ALKAMI TECHNOLOGY, INC., 5601 GRANITE PARKWAY, SUITE 120, PLANO TX 75024