Erie Indemnity Co (Erie Indemnity Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Erie Indemnity Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Erie Indemnity Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Erie Indemnity Co (Erie Indemnity Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Erie Indemnity Co (NAS:ERIE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EI2:Germany

Address

100 Erie Insurance Place, Erie, PA, USA, 16530

Website

https://www.erieinsurance.com

Erie Indemnity Co primarily performs services on behalf of the Erie Insurance Exchange relating to sales, underwriting, and issuance of policies. Erie Indemnity's results are tied to the performance of the Insurance Exchange, which principally provides automobile and homeowners insurance for individuals, along with multiperil, workers' compensation, and commercial automobile insurance for its commercial clients. Erie Indemnity's management fee is typically 25% of the Exchange's premiums, and this accounts for all of Erie Indemnity's revenue. The company operates exclusively in the United States.

Executives

Marc Cipriani	officer: Senior Vice President	100 ERIE INSURANCE PLACE, ERIE PA 16530
Sean Dugan	officer: Executive Vice President	100 ERIE INSURANCE PLACE, ERIE PA 16530
Parthasarathy Srinivasa	officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer	100 ERIE INSURANCE PLACE, ERIE PA 16530
Jorie L Novacek	officer: SVP, Controller	100 ERIE INSURANCE PLACE, ERIE PA 16530
Thomas B Hagen	director	230 WEST 6TH STREET, ERIE PA 16507-1319
Eugene C Connell	director	785 HUNTINGTON DRIVE, ERIE PA 16505
Elizabeth A Vorsheck	director, 10 percent owner	6252 COMMERCIAL WAY PMB 140, BROOKSVILLE FL 34613
Brian W. Bolash	officer: SVP,Secretary,General Counsel	100 ERIE INSURANCE PLACE, ERIE PA 16530
Borneman J Ralph Jr	director	NATIONAL PENN BANCSHARES INC, PHILADELPHIA & READING AVENUES, BOYERTOWN PA 19512
Hudson Brian Arden Sr.	director	2407 PARK DRIVE, HARRISBURG PA 17110
Louis F Colaizzo	officer: Senior Vice President	100 ERIE INSURANCE PLACE, ERIE PA 16530
Salvatore Correnti	director	8518 SOUTHFIELDS CIRCLE, LUTHERVILLE MD 21093
Timothy G Necastro	officer: President & CEO, Designate	100 ERIE INSURANCE PL, ERIE PA 16530
Luann Datesh	director	333 OAK FOREST DRIVE, PITTSBURGH PA 15216
Robert C Wilburn	director	110 WASHINGTON AVENUE #1711, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139