Empire Petroleum (Empire Petroleum) Predictability Rank

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What is Empire Petroleum Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Empire Petroleum Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Empire Petroleum Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Empire Petroleum (Empire Petroleum) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Empire Petroleum Corp (AMEX:EP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2200 South Utica Place, Suite 150, Tulsa, OK, USA, 74114

Website

http://www.empirepetroleumcorp.com

Empire Petroleum Corp is engaged in the exploration and development of oil and natural gas in the United States. All of the company's producing properties are located in Louisiana, Texas, North Dakota, and New Mexico. It generates revenue from Oil and Gas sales.

Executives

Marchive Benjamin J. Ii	director	1021 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2626, HOUSTON TX 77002-6516
Energy Evolution Master Fund, Ltd.	10 percent owner	25025 I-45 NORTH, SUITE 420, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
J Kevin Vann	officer: VP, Finance/Strategic Planning	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, SUITE 3800, TULSA OK 74172
Phil E Mulacek	10 percent owner	25025 I 45 NORTH, SUITE 420, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Mason H. Matschke	director	25025 I-45 NORTH, SUITE 420, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Faulkner Stephen L Jr	officer: Controller and Chief Acctg Ofc	3500 ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, TULSA OK 74172
Eugene J Sweeney	officer: Chief Operating Officer	151 W BURTON PL, CHICAGO IL 60610
Michael R. Morrisett	10 percent owner	3803 S. TRENTON AVENUE, TULSA OK 74105-3324
Thomas W. Pritchard	officer: Chief Executive Officer	15798 SPYGLASS HILL LOOP, GAINESVILLE VA 20155
Andrew Lloyd Lewis	director	2200 S. UTICA PLACE, SUITE 150, TULSA OK 74114
Angela M Baker	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	2200 S. UTICA PLACE, SUITE 150, TULSA OK 74114
Puckett Land Co	10 percent owner	5460 S. QUEBEC ST., SUITE 250, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Tony Kamin	director, 10 percent owner	619 BLUFF STREET, GLENCOE IL 60022
Gary C Adams	10 percent owner	1437 S. BOULDER AVENUE, SUITE 930, TULSA OK 74119
Empire Petroleum Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	3803 S. TRENTON AVENUE, TULSA OK 74105-3324

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