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Eaton Vance Enhanced Equityome Fund II (Eaton Vance Enhanced Equityome Fund II) Predictability Rank


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What is Eaton Vance Enhanced Equityome Fund II Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Eaton Vance Enhanced Equityome Fund II Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Eaton Vance Enhanced Equityome Fund II Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Eaton Vance Enhanced Equityome Fund II (Eaton Vance Enhanced Equityome Fund II) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Two International Place, Suite 1400, Boston, MA, USA, 02110
Eaton Vance Enhanced Equity Income Fund II is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. The fund's primary investment objective is to provide current income, with a secondary objective of capital appreciation. It invests in a portfolio of large and mid-cap securities in the sectors such as Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Healthcare, Industrials, Consumer Staples, Financials, Materials, and Energy.
Executives
Anchal Pachnanda officer: Officer TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Williams Ray Kelly Jr officer: President TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Alan C. Bowser other: Trustee TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Nicholas Dilorenzo officer: Secretary TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Nancy A Wiser other: Trustee WELLS FARGO FUNDS MANAGEMENT, 200 BERKELEY STREET, 19TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Jill Damon officer: Secretary TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Douglas R Rogers other: Portfolio Manager TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Kimberly M Roessiger officer: Secretary TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Deidre E Walsh officer: Vice President TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Keith Quinton other: Trustee TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Marcus L. Smith other: Trustee 555 17TH STREET, SUITE 3700, DCT INDUSTRIAL TRUST INC., DENVER CO 80202
Froio Richard F Sr officer: [email protected] C/O BISYS FUND SERVICES, 60 STATE ST., BOSTON MA 02129
Mark R Fetting other: Trustee LEGG MASON, INC., 100 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Scott E Wennerholm other: Trustee TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Yana S Barton other: Portfolio Manager TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110

Eaton Vance Enhanced Equityome Fund II (Eaton Vance Enhanced Equityome Fund II) Headlines