European Equity Fund, / MD (European Equity Fund, / MD) Predictability Rank

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What is European Equity Fund, / MD Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

European Equity Fund, / MD Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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European Equity Fund, / MD (European Equity Fund, / MD) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » European Equity Fund, Inc / MD (NYSE:EEA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

875 Third Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10022-6225

Website

https://www.dws.com

European Equity Fund, Inc / MD is a United States-based diversified, closed-end management investment company. The fund seeks long-term capital appreciation through investment in equity and equity securities of issuers domiciled in Europe. Its portfolio of investments consists of different sectors such as industrials, financials, healthcare, consumer discretionary, materials, consumer staples, information technology, and other sectors.

Executives

Bernhard Koepp	director	C/O ANJIE LAROCCA-LEWIS, DWS, 875 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Christopher Pleister	director	C/O ANJIE LAROCCA, DEUTSCHE BANK, 60 WALL STREET, NEW YORK NY 10005
Fiona Flannery	director	C/O ANJIE LAROCCA-LEWIS, DWS, 875 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Christian Rijs	officer: AML Compliance Officer	C/O DWS, 875 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Helen Delman	other: Section 16 Officer	C/O DWS, 875 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Juan Barriobero	other: Portfolio Manager	C/O ANJIE LAROCCA, DWS, 875 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Holger Hatje	director	C/O ANJIE LAROCCA, DWS, 875 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Michelle S. Goveia	officer: AML Compliance Officer	C/O ANJIE LAROCCA, DEUTSCHE BANK, 60 WALL STREET, NEW YORK NY 10005
Alyssa Asbury	officer: Assistant Secretary	C/O DWS, 875 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Christian Zugel	director	TWO BRIDGE AVENUE, SUITE 322, RED HOOK NJ 07701
Britta Weidenbach	other: Portfolio Manager	C/O ANJIE LAROCCA, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Wolfgang Helmut Leoni	director	C/O ANJIE LAROCCA, DEUTSCHE BANK, 60 WALL STREET, NEW YORK NY 10005
Diane George Kenneally	officer: Treasurer	C/O ANJIE LAROCCA, DEUTSCHE ASSET MGMT, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Sheila Cadogan	officer: Assistant Treasurer	C/O ANJIE LAROCCA, DEUTSCHE BANK, 60 WALL STREET, NEW YORK NY 10005
Kenneth C Froewiss	director