GrafTech International (GrafTech International) Predictability Rank

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What is GrafTech International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

GrafTech International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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GrafTech International (GrafTech International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » GrafTech International Ltd (NYSE:EAF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EAF:Mexico G6G:Germany

Address

982 Keynote Circle, Brooklyn Heights, Independence, OH, USA, 44131

Website

https://www.graftech.com

GrafTech International Ltd is a producer of specialized graphite electrodes. The electrode is an essential part of the electric arc furnace process used in aluminum smelters and steel minimills. The company operates into one reporting segment namely Industrial Materials. The Industrial Materials segment manufactures high-quality graphite electrodes essential to the production of electric arc furnace steel and other ferrous and non-ferrous metals. It offers graphite electrodes and needle coke products.

Executives

Brookfield Private Funds Holdings Inc.	director, 10 percent owner	THREE WORLD FINANCIAL CENTER, 200 VESEY STREET, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10281
Bcp Gp Ltd	director, 10 percent owner, See Remarks	C/O BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC., BROOKFIELD PLACE, 181 BAY STREET, SUITE, TORONTO A6 M5J2T3
Diego Donoso	director	2211 H.H. DOW WAY, MIDLAND MI 48674
Marcel Kessler	director, officer: CEO and President	982 KEYNOTE CIRCLE, BROOKLYN HEIGHTS OH 44131
Jean-marc Germain	director	982 KEYNOTE CIRCLE, BROOKLYN HEIGHTS OH 44131
Timothy K Flanagan	officer: CFO, VP Finance & Treasurer	C/O GRAFTECH INTERNATIONAL LTD., 982 KEYNOTE CIRCLE, BROOKLYN HEIGHTS OH 44131
David J. Rintoul	director, officer: President and CEO	600 GRANT STREET, SUITE 6100, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Debra Fine	director	590 MADISON AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Henry R. Keizer	director	MONTPELIER HOUSE, 94 PITTS BAY ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Leslie D Dunn	director
Brookfield Business Partners Ltd	director, 10 percent owner	73 FRONT STREET, 5TH FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 HM12
Bcp Iv Bermuda Investor Lp	director, 10 percent owner	181 BAY STREET, SUITE 300, BROOKFIELD PLACE, TORONTO A6 M5J 2T3
Brookfield Private Equity Group Holdings Lp	director, 10 percent owner	C/O BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC., BROOKFIELD PLACE, 181 BAY STREET, SUITE, TORONTO A6 M5J2T3
Brookfield Us Inc.	director, 10 percent owner	BROOKFIELD PLACE, 250 VESEY STREET, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10281-1023
Brookfield Private Equity Holdings Llc	director, 10 percent owner	C/O BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC., BROOKFIELD PLACE, 250 VESEY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10281-1023