Precision BioSciences (Precision BioSciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Precision BioSciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Precision BioSciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Precision BioSciences (Precision BioSciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Precision BioSciences Inc (NAS:DTIL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PBS:Germany

Address

302 East Pettigrew Street, Dibrell Building, Suite A-100, Durham, NC, USA, 27701

Website

https://www.precisionbiosciences.com

Precision BioSciences Inc is a genome editing company dedicated to improving life through its genome editing platform, ARCUS. It leverages ARCUS in the development of its product candidates, which are designed to treat human diseases and provide food and agricultural solutions. ARCUS is also unique in its relatively small size which potentially allows delivery to a wider range of cells and tissues using viral and non-viral gene delivery methods.

Executives

J. Jefferson Smith	10 percent owner	C/O PRECISION BIOSCIENCES, INC., 302 EAST PETTIGREW STREET, SUITE A-100, DURHAM NC 27701
Alan List	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O PRECISION BIOSCIENCES, INC., 302 EAST PETTIGREW STREET, DURHAM NC 27701
Michael Amoroso	director, officer: President and CEO	1330 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Dario Scimeca	officer: General Counsel	C/O PRECISION BIOSCIENCES, INC., 302 E. PETTIGREW STREET, SUITE A-100, DURHAM NC 27701
John Alexander Kelly	officer: Interim CFO	C/O FOREST LABORATORIES, INC., 909 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Pharma Ag Novartis	10 percent owner	LICHTSTRASSE 35, CH-4002, BASEL V8
Ag Novartis	10 percent owner	LICHTSTRASSE 35, BASEL V8 CH 4056
Derek Jantz	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O PRECISION BIOSCIENCES, INC., 302 EAST PETTIGREW STREET, SUITE A-100, DURHAM NC 27701
Melinda Brown	director	10 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Shari Lisa Pire	director	C/O PRECISION BIOSCIENCES, INC., 302 EAST PETTIGREW STREET, DURHAM NC 27701
Samuel C. Wadsworth	director	C/O DIMENSION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
David S. Thomson	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O PRECISION BIOSCIENCES, INC., 302 EAST PETTIGREW STREET, SUITE A-100, DURHAM NC 27701
Stanley Frankel	director	C/O PRECISION BIOSCIENCES, INC., 302 EAST PETTIGREW STREET, DURHAM NC 27701
Matthew R. Kane	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	C/O PRECISION BIOSCIENCES, INC., 302 EAST PETTIGREW STREET, SUITE A-100, DURHAM NC 27701
Shane Barton	officer: VP & Corporate Controller	C/O PRECISION BIOSCIENCES, INC., 302 EAST PETTIGREW STREET, DURHAM NC 27701