DTFTax-Freeome (DTFTax-Freeome) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1991. Start your Free Trial

What is DTFTax-Freeome Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DTFTax-Freeome Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

DTFTax-Freeome Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of DTFTax-Freeome's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

DTFTax-Freeome (DTFTax-Freeome) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » DTFTax-Free Income Inc (NYSE:DTF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

200 South Wacker Drive, Suite 1900, Chicago, IL, USA, 60606

Website

https://www.dpimc.com

DTFTax-Free Income Inc is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to provide current income exempt from regular federal income tax consistent with preservation of capital. The fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing in a diversified portfolio of investment-grade tax-exempt obligations.

Executives

Grumhaus David D Jr.	other: Officer of Investment Adviser	200 S. WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 500, CHICAGO IL 60606
Mareile B. Cusack	director	DUFF & PHELPS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO., 200 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 500, CHICAGO IL 60640
Timothy P. Riordan	officer: Vice President	DUFF & PHELPS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO., 200 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 500, CHICAGO IL 60640
Kathleen Hegyi	officer: CCO	C/O DUFF & PHELPS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 200 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
Dusty L. Self	officer: Vice President	VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC., 301 EAST PINE STREET, SUITE 500, ORLANDO FL 32801
Ronald H. Schwartz	officer: Vice President	VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC., 301 EAST PINE STREET, SUITE 500, ORLANDO FL 32801
Wells Fargo & Company/mn	10 percent owner	420 MONTGOMERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94163
Jpmorgan Chase Bank, N.a.	10 percent owner	1111 POLARIS PARKWAY, COLUMBUS OH 43240
George W Karpus	other: See Explanation of Responses
Karpus Management, Inc.	10 percent owner	183 SULLY'S TRAIL, PITTSFORD NY 14534
Lisa Leonard	officer: Vice President	GATEWAY CENTER THREE, 1100 MUBERRY STREET, 4TH FLOOR, NEWARK NJ 07102
Timothy M Heaney	officer: VP & Chief Investment Officer	GATEWAY CENTER THREE, 1100 MUBERRY STREET, 4TH FLOOR, NEWARK NJ 07102
Hoffman Clifford W. Jr.	director	C/O DUFF & PHELPS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 200 E. WACKER DR., CHICAGO IL 60606
Wells Fargo Bank N A	10 percent owner	101 NORTH PHILLIPS AVENUE, SIOUX FALLS SD 57104
Wells Fargo Municipal Capital Strategies, Llc	10 percent owner	375 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10152

DTFTax-Freeome (DTFTax-Freeome) Headlines

From GuruFocus

DTF Tax-Free Income 2028 Term Fund Inc. Announces Dividends

By Business Wire • 09-21-2023

DTF Tax-Free Income 2028 Term Fund Inc. Announces Retirement of Co-Portfolio Manager

By Business Wire Business Wire • 05-02-2023

DTF Tax-Free Income 2028 Term Fund Inc. Announces Dividends

By Business Wire Business Wire • 06-15-2023

DTF Tax-Free Income 2028 Term Fund Inc. Announces Dividends

By Business Wire • 12-14-2023