DoubleLine Yield Opportunities Fund (DoubleLine Yield Opportunities Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is DoubleLine Yield Opportunities Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DoubleLine Yield Opportunities Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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DoubleLine Yield Opportunities Fund (DoubleLine Yield Opportunities Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » DoubleLine Yield Opportunities Fund (NYSE:DLY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2002 North Tampa Street, Suite 200, Tampa, FL, USA, 33602

Website

https://www.doublelinefunds.com

DoubleLine Yield Opportunities Fund is organized as a non-diversified, limited-term, closed-end management investment company. The Fund's investment objective is to seek a high level of total return, with an emphasis on current income.

Executives

Lisa Chen	officer: AML Compliance Officer	C/O DOUBLELINE FUNDS, 2002 NORTH TAMPA STREET, SUITE 200, TAMPA FL 33602
John C. Salter	other: Trustee	C/O DOUBLELINE CAPITAL LP, 2002 NORTH TAMPA STREET, SUITE 200, TAMPA FL 33602
Jose Sarmenta	officer: AML Officer	C/O DOUBLELINE CAPITAL LP, 333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Joan Elam	officer: Dir of HR for DLY's Inv Adv	C/O DOUBLELINE CAPITAL, 333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Robert Herron	officer: Vice President	C/O DOUBLELINE CAPITAL LP, 333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Raymond Woolson	other: Trustee	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Jeffrey E Gundlach	officer: See Remarks	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
David James Kennedy	officer: Vice President	333 SOUTH GRAND AVE 18TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Patrick Aaron Townzen	officer: Vice President	333 SOUTH GRAND AVE 18TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Every Barbara Van	officer: See Remarks	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Casey Moore	officer: See Remarks	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Ana Cris Santa	officer: Vice President and Secretary	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Earl A. Lariscy	officer: Vice President	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Henry V Chase	officer: See Remarks	C/O DOUBLELINE CAPITAL LP, 333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Joseph J. Ciprari	other: Trustee	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071