What is Delphi Technologies Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Delphi Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Delphi Technologies (Delphi Technologies) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
One Angel Court, 10th Floor, London, GBR, EC2R 7HJ
Delphi Technologies' main products are fuel injection and valvetrain systems along with the sensors and software controls for each, representing approximately 68% of 2019 total revenue. With a diverse base of vehicle manufacturer customers, no single automaker represents 10% of the company's revenue. Regionally, this global parts supplier had about 45% of 2019 revenue from Europe, Middle East, and Africa; 28% from North America; 24% from Asia-Pacific; and 3% from South America.
Executives
| Nelda J Connors |
director |
BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752-1234 |
| Michael Neumann |
officer: Senior Vice President |
C/O DELPHI TECHNOLOGIES PLC 1 ANGEL COURT, 10TH FLOOR LONDON X0 EC2R 7HJ |
| Mustafa Kerem Erman |
officer: Senior Vice President |
C/O DELPHI TECHNOLOGIES PLC 1 ANGEL COURT, 10TH FLOOR LONDON X0 EC2R 7HJ |
| Richard Hu |
officer: Senior Vice President |
C/O DELPHI TECHNOLOGIES PLC 1 ANGEL COURT, 10TH FLOOR LONDON X0 EC2R 7HJ |
| Kevin Quinlan |
officer: Senior Vice President |
C/O DELPHI TECHNOLOGIES PLC 1 ANGEL COURT, 10TH FLOOR LONDON X0 EC2R 7HJ |
| Michael Dorah |
officer: Senior Vice President |
C/O DELPHI TECHNOLOGIES PLC, 1 ANGEL COURT, 10TH FLOOR, LONDON X0 EC2R 7HJ |
| Mike Clarke |
officer: Senior Vice President |
C/O DELPHI TECHNOLOGIES PLC COURTENEY ROAD HOATH WAY GILLINGHAM, KENT X0 X0 ME8 0RU |
| Helmut Leube |
director |
C/O DELPHI TECHNOLOGIES PLC COURTENEY ROAD, HOATH WAY GILLINGHAM, KENT X0 ME8 0RU |
| Jeffrey M Sesplankis |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
6655 PEACHTREE DUNWOODY ROAD, ATLANTA GA 30328 |
| James D. Harrington |
officer: Senior Vice President |
500 NORTH FIELD DRIVE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045 |
| Hari N Nair |
director |
600 NORTH LAKE SHORE DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60611 |
| Richard F Dauch |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O SPARTAN MOTORS INC, 1541 REYNOLDS ROAD, CHARLOTTE MI 48813 |
| Vivid Sehgal |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O LIVANOVA PLC, 5 MERCHANT SQUARE, LONDON X0 W2 1AY |
| Joseph S Cantie |
director |
C/O DELPHI AUTOMOTIVE, 5725 DELPHI DRIVE, TROY MI 48098 |
| Gary L Cowger |
director |
5725 DELPHI DRIVE, TROY MI 48098 |
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