DLH Holdings (DLH Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is DLH Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DLH Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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DLH Holdings (DLH Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » DLH Holdings Corp (NAS:DLHC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TS8A:Germany

Address

3565 Piedmont Road, NE Building 3, Suite 700, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30305

Website

https://www.dlhcorp.com

DLH Holdings Corp is a provider of technology-enabled business process outsourcing and program management solutions in the United States. The company offers services to several government agencies which include the Department of Veteran Affairs. It is engaged in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations to solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, analytics, cloud-based applications, and telehealth systems.

Executives

Wynnefield Partners Small Cap Value Lp	10 percent owner	450 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 509, NEW YORK NY 10123
Judith L Bjornaas	director	12015 LEE JACKSON MEMORIAL HWY., MANTECH INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION, FAIRFAX VA 22033
Jacqueline S. Everett	officer: Chief Growth Officer	4602 QUARTZ ROCK CT., CHANTILLY VA 20151
Frederick Gerald Wasserman	director	4 NOBADEER DRIVE, PENNINGTON NJ 08534
Galeel Maliek Ferebee	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	2659 WINTER MORNING WAY, OLNEY MD 20832
Kathryn M. Johnbull	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1776 PEACHTREE STREET, NW, SUITE 300S, ATLANTA GA 30309
Stephen Zelkowicz	director	C/O SUMMER INFANT, INC., 1275 PARK EAST DRIVE, WOONSOCKET RI 02895
Zachary Parker	director, officer: CEO and President	TEAMSTAFF, INC., 1 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 130, SOMERSET NJ 08873
James P Allen	director	C/O GRC INTERNATIONAL INC, 1900 GALLOWS RD, VIENNA VA 22182
Jeanine M. Christian	officer: Pres. Social&Scientific Sys	523 PICCADILLY ROAD, TOWNSON MD 21204
Kevin Wilson	officer: President, DLH Solutions	3525 HIGHWAY 81 S., TEAMSTAFF GOVERNMENT SOLUTIONS, INC., LOGANVILLE GA 30052
Wynnefield Capital, Inc. Profit Sharing Plan	10 percent owner	450 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 509, NEW YORK NY 10123
Joshua Landes	10 percent owner
Nelson Obus	10 percent owner
Martin J Delaney	director	37 OVERLOOK TRAIL, NEWARK NJ 07950