DraftKings (DraftKings) Predictability Rank

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What is DraftKings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DraftKings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

DraftKings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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DraftKings (DraftKings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » DraftKings Inc (NAS:DKNG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DKNG:Mexico 8DEA:Germany D2KN34:Brazil

Address

222 Berkeley Street, 5th Floor, Boston, MA, USA, 02116

Website

https://www.draftkings.com

DraftKings got its start in 2012 as an innovator in daily fantasy sports. Then, following a Supreme Court ruling in 2018 that allowed states to legalize online sports wagering, the company expanded into online sports and casino gambling, where it generally holds the number two or three revenue share position across states in which it competes. DraftKings is now live with online sports betting in 21 states (44% of the U.S. population) and iGaming in five states (11% of U.S.), with both products available to around 40% of Canada's population. The company also operates a non-fungible token commissioned-based marketplace and develops and licenses online gaming products.

Executives

Jason Robins	director, officer: See Remarks	222 BERKELEY STREET, FLOOR 5, BOSTON MA 02116
Matthew Kalish	director, officer: See Remarks	222 BERKELEY STREET, FLOOR 5, BOSTON MA 02116
Paul Liberman	director, officer: See Remarks	222 BERKELEY STREET, FLOOR 5, BOSTON MA 02116
R Stanton Dodge	officer: Chief Legal Officer	ECHOSTAR CORPORATION, 100 INVERNESS TERRACE EAST, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Jason Park	officer: Chief Financial Officer	222 BERKELEY STREET, FLOOR 5, BOSTON MA 02116
Erik Bradbury	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	222 BERKELEY STREET, FLOOR 5, BOSTON MA 02116
Marni M Walden	director	1095 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Shalom Meckenzie	director	222 BERKELEY STREET, FLOOR 5, BOSTON MA 02116
Ryan R Moore	director	56 WAREHAM STREET, 3RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02118
Jocelyn Moore	director	222 BERKELEY STREET, FLOOR 5, BOSTON MA 02116
Steven Joseph Murray	director	C/O SOFTBANK CAPITAL, 38 GLEN AVENUE, NEWTON MA 02459
Woodrow Levin	director	535 MISSION STREET, 11TH FLOOR, SAN FRANSISCO CA 941105
Harry Sloan	director	1450 2ND STREET, SUITE 247, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Valerie Mosley	director	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Hany M Nada	director	800 MARKET STREET #800 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94102