What is Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals (Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
200 Connell Drive, Suite 1500, Berkeley Heights, NJ, USA, 07922
Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company which develops targeted medicines for cancer and other proliferative diseases. It develops several families of anticancer drugs that act on the cell cycle, including nucleoside analogs, CDK (cyclin dependent kinase) inhibitors, and PLK (polo-like kinase) inhibitors. The pipeline development programs of the company include fadraciclib, Sapacitabine, and plogosertib.
Executives
| Spiro Rombotis |
director, officer: President & C.E.O. |
C/O CYCLACEL PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 200 CONNELL DRIVE, SUITE 1500, BERKELEY HEIGHTS NJ 07922 |
| Paul Mcbarron |
director, officer: E.V.P., Finance & C.O.O. |
C/O CYCLACEL PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 200 CONNELL DRIVE, SUITE 1500, BERKELEY HEIGHTS NJ 07922 |
| Kenneth M. Ferguson |
director |
2125 1ST AVENUE #2902, SEATTLE WA 98121-2121 |
| Sam L Barker |
director |
51 AUNT MOLLY ROAD, HOPEWELL NJ 08525 |
| Brian Schwartz |
director |
C/O ARQULE, INC., 1 WALL STREET, 6TH FLOOR, BURLINGTON MA 01803 |
| Karin L Walker |
director |
C/O PROTHENA CORPORATION PLC, 650 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Mark Kirschbaum |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
66 WEST 38TH STREET, APT. 19D, NEW YORK NY 10018 |
| Robert J. Spiegel |
director |
C/O GERON CORPORATION, 230 CONSTITUTION DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Eastern Capital Ltd |
10 percent owner |
10 MARKET STREET, #773, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9006 |
| Kevin C Tang |
10 percent owner |
4747 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 210, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Tang Capital Partners Lp |
10 percent owner |
4747 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 210, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Tang Capital Management Llc |
10 percent owner |
4747 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 210, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Portfolio Services Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
10 MARKET STREET, # 773, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9006 |
| Kenneth Bryan Dart |
10 percent owner |
P. O. BOX 31300, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1206 |
| Lloyd Sems |
director |
C/O SEMS CAPITAL, 7 DEY STREET, SUITE 1101, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
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