Cushman & Wakefield (Cushman & Wakefield) Predictability Rank

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What is Cushman & Wakefield Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cushman & Wakefield Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cushman & Wakefield (Cushman & Wakefield) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Cushman & Wakefield PLC (NYSE:CWK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2IY:Germany

Address

125 Old Broad Street, London, GBR, EC2N 1AR

Website

https://www.cushmanwakefield.com

Cushman & Wakefield is one of the largest commercial real estate services firms in the world, with global headquarters in Chicago. The firm provides various real estate-related services to owners, occupiers, and investors. These include brokerage services for leasing and capital markets sales as well as advisory services such valuation, project management, and facilities management.

Executives

Nathaniel Robinson	officer: EVP, Strategic Planning, CIO	225 WEST WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
Tpg Gp A, Llc	10 percent owner	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Michelle Felman	director
Noelle J Perkins	officer: See Remarks	3075 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE TX 60515
Pagac Drone Holding Gp I Ltd	10 percent owner	32/F, AIA CENTRAL, 1 CONNAUGHT ROAD CENTRAL, HONG KONG K3 NA
Michelle Mackay	director	C/O WCI COMMUNITIES, INC., 24301 WALDEN CENTER DRIVE, BONITA SPRINGS FL 34134
W Brett White	director, officer: Executive Chairman and CEO	2244 WALNUT GROVE AVENUE, ROSEMEAD CA 91770
Andrew R. Mcdonald	officer: President	C/O CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD PLC, 225 W WACKER DR SUITE 3000, CHICAGO IL 60606
Jon Winkelried	10 percent owner	C/O GOLDMAN, SACHS & CO., 85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004
John Forrester	officer: President	225 WEST WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
Angela Sun	director	7001 EAST BELLEVIEW AVENUE, DENVER CO 80236
Tpg Asia Advisors Vi, Inc.	10 percent owner	C/O TPG GLOBAL, LLC, 301 COMMERCE STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Anthony Murray Miller	director	225 WEST WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
Neil O Johnston	officer: Global Chief Financial Officer
Angelique G. Brunner	director	C/O CHESAPEAKE LODGING TRUST, 4300 WILSON BOULEVARD, SUITE 625, ARLINGTON VA 22203