What is Citius Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Citius Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Citius Pharmaceuticals (Citius Pharmaceuticals) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
11 Commerce Drive, First Floor, Cranford, NJ, USA, 07016
Citius Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biopharmaceutical company with a focus on anti-infectives in adjunct cancer care, prescription products, and stem cell therapy. It is currently advancing four proprietary product candidates: LYMPHIR for the treatment of patients with persistent or recurrent cutaneous T-cell lymphoma . Mino-Lok, which is an antibiotic lock solution used to treat patients with catheter-related bloodstream infections; Mino-Wrap, a liquifying gel-based wrap for reduction of tissue expander infections following breast reconstructive surgeries; Halo-Lido, a topical formulation that is intended to provide anti-inflammatory and anesthetic relief to persons suffering from hemorrhoids; NoveCite, a mesenchymal stem cell therapy for the treatment of acute respiratory distress syndrome.
Executives
| Myron Z Holubiak |
director, officer: Vice Chairman |
C/O CITIUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 63 GREAT ROAD, MAYNARD MA 01754 |
| Dennis M Mcgrath |
director |
C/O PAVMED INC., ONE GRAND CENTRAL PLACE, STE. 4600, NEW YORK NY 10165 |
| Leonard L Mazur |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O CITIUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 11 COMMERCE DRIVE, 1ST FLOOR, CRANFORD NJ 07016 |
| Suren G Dutia |
director |
C/O CITIUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 63 GREAT ROAD, MAYNARD MA 01754 |
| Carol Webb |
director |
11 COMMERCE DRIVE, FIRST FLOOR, CRANFORD NJ 07016 |
| Eugene Myron Holuka |
director |
11 COMMERCE DRIVE, 11TH FLOOR, CRANFORD NJ 07016 |
| Jaime Bartushak |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O CITIUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 11 COMMERCE DRIVE, 1ST FLOOR, CRANFORD NJ 07016 |
| Myron Czuczman |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
C/O CITIUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 11 COMMERCE DRIVE, 1ST FLOOR, CRANFORD NJ 07016 |
| Howard Safir |
director |
11 COMMERCE DRIVE, FIRST FLOOR, CRANFORD NJ 07016 |
| William Kane |
director |
11 COMMERCE DRIVE, FIRST FLOOR, CRANFORD NJ 07016 |
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