Cardiovascular Systems (Cardiovascular Systems) Predictability Rank

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What is Cardiovascular Systems Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cardiovascular Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cardiovascular Systems (Cardiovascular Systems) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Cardiovascular Systems Inc (NAS:CSII) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1225 Old Highway 8 Northwest, Saint Paul, MN, USA, 55112-6416

Website

https://www.csi360.com

Cardiovascular Systems Inc is a medical technology company focused on patients with peripheral and coronary artery diseases. Its peripheral artery disease systems are catheter-based platforms used to treat plaque in leg arteries above and below the knee. The firm's orbital atherectomy systems are used in peripheral and coronary commercial applications. Its OAS products include the Diamondback 360 Peripheral and Stealth 360 systems. Sales of Peripheral OAS contribute the majority of revenue. Cardiovascular systems generate the vast majority of its revenue in the United States.

Executives

Jeffrey S. Points	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS, INC., 1225 OLD HIGHWAY 8 NW, ST. PAUL MN 55112
Scott R Ward	director	RAYMOND HOLDINGS, LLC, 6410 BALLANTINE CT., INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN 55077
Erik Paulsen	director	C/O CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS, INC., 1225 OLD HIGHWAY 8 NW, ST. PAUL MN 55112
Rhonda J. Robb	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS, INC., 1225 OLD HIGHWAY 8 NW, ST. PAUL MN 55112
Martha Goldberg Aronson	director	40 WEST HIGHLAND PARK DRIVE NE, HUTCHINSON MN 55350
Sachin H. Jain	director	C/O CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS, INC., 1225 OLD HIGHWAY 8 NW, ST. PAUL MN 55112
Alexander Rosenstein	officer: General Counsel & Corp. Secy	C/O CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS, INC., 1225 OLD HIGHWAY 8 NW, ST. PAUL MN 55112
Sandra Sedo	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	C/O CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS, INC., 1225 OLD HIGHWAY 8 NW, ST. PAUL MN 55112
Kelvin K. Womack	director	C/O CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS, INC., 1225 OLD HIGHWAY 8 NW, ST. PAUL MN 55112
Stephen J. Rempe	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS, INC., 1225 OLD HIGHWAY 8 NW, ST. PAUL MN 55112
John M. Hastings	officer: VP Manufacturing & Operations	C/O CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS, INC., 1225 OLD HIGHWAY 8 NW, ST. PAUL MN 55112
Stephen Stenbeck	director	C/O CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS, INC., 1225 OLD HIGHWAY 8 NW, ST. PAUL MN 55112
Ryan Egeland	officer: VP of Medical Affairs	C/O CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS, INC., 1225 OLD HIGHWAY 8 NW, ST. PAUL MN 55112
David Whitescarver	officer: VP of Corp. Dev. & IP	C/O CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS, INC., 1225 OLD HIGHWAY 8 NW, ST. PAUL MN 55112
Laura Gillund	officer: Chief Talent Officer