What is Crescent Energy Co Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Crescent Energy Co Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Crescent Energy Co (Crescent Energy Co) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
600 Travis Street, Suite 7200, Houston, TX, USA, 77002
Crescent Energy Co an independent energy company with a portfolio of assets in key basins across the lower 48 states. The company maintains a diverse portfolio of assets in key proven basins across the United States, including the Eagle Ford, Rockies, Barnett, Permian, and Mid-Con. It seeks to deliver attractive risk-adjusted investment returns and predictable cash flows across cycles with a focus on operated oil and gas assets complemented by non?operated assets, mineral and royalty interests, and midstream infrastructure.
Executives
| David C. Rockecharlie |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
600 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 7200, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Brandi Kendall |
director, officer: Chief Financial Officer |
600 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 7200, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Independence Energy Aggregator L.p. |
10 percent owner |
600 TRAVIS STREEET, SUITE 7200, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Kkr Group Partnership L.p. |
10 percent owner |
C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001 |
| Todd Falk |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
600 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 7200, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Bo Shi |
officer: See Remarks |
600 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 7200, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| John Clayton Rynd |
officer: Executive Vice President |
600 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 7200, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Teacher Retirement System Of Texas |
10 percent owner |
1000 RED RIVER STREET, AUSTIN TX 78701 |
| Benjamin Conner |
officer: Executive Vice President |
600 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 7200, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Kkr Group Co. Inc. |
10 percent owner |
30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001 |
| Karen Jo Simon |
director |
1918 OLIVE STREET, #2904, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Bevin Brown |
director |
600 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 7200, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Erich Bobinsky |
director |
600 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 7200, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Kkr Group Assets Holdings Iii L.p. |
10 percent owner |
30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001 |
| Kkr Group Assets Iii Gp Llc |
10 percent owner |
30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001 |
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