Core-Mark Holding Co (Core-Mark Holding Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Core-Mark Holding Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Core-Mark Holding Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Core-Mark Holding Co (Core-Mark Holding Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » Core-Mark Holding Co Inc (NAS:CORE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1500 Solana Boulevard, Suite 3400, Westlake, TX, USA, 76262

Website

https://www.core-mark.com

Core-Mark Holding Co Inc is a wholesale distributor to the convenience retail industry in North America, providing sales, marketing, distribution, and logistics services to customers across the United States and Canada. The company offers customers a wide range of branded and private label products including cigarettes, food, candy, health and beauty products, and beverages. Geographically, it generates a majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

Christopher M Miller	officer: Senior VP & CFO	200 FOURTH ST OAKLAND CA 94607
Scott E Mcpherson	director, officer: President and CEO	395 OYSTER POINT BLVD, SUITE 415, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Alan T Thomas	officer: SVP, Western Divisions	395 OYSTER POINT BLVD SUITE 415 SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Jennifer Hulett	officer: Senior VP and Chief HR Officer	1500 SOLANA BLVD., SUITE 3400, WESTLAKE TX 76262
Christopher M Murray	officer: SVP - Marketing	1500 SOLANA BLVD SUITE 3400 WESTLAKE TX 76262
Diane Randolph	director	1500 SOLANA BLVD, SUITE 3400, WESTLAKE TX 76262
Stuart W Booth	director	C/O CENTRAL GARDEN & PET CO, 3697 MT DIABLO BLVD STE 310, LAFAYETTE CA 94549
David Jackson Lawrence	officer: VP - Treasury & IR	1500 SOLANA BLVD BUILDING 3, SUITE 3400 WESTLAKE TX 76262
Jordana Daryl Kammerud	officer: Senior VP and Chief HR Officer	ONE RIVERFRONT PLAZA, CORNING NY 14831
Laura Jean Flanagan	director	395 OYSTER POINT BLVD, SUITE 415, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Christopher Hobson	officer: Senior VP US Distribution East	395 OYSTER POINT BLVD. SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
William Stein	officer: Senior VP Enterprise Growth	395 OYSTER POINT BLVD SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Eric Rolheiser	officer: President - Canada Operations	395 OYSTER POINT BLVD. SUITE 415 SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Rocky Dewbre	director	46 FLORHAM PARK DR., SPRING TX 77379
Harvey L Tepner	director	395 OYSTER POINT BLVD., SUITE 415, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080