Global Cord Blood (Global Cord Blood) Predictability Rank

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What is Global Cord Blood Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Global Cord Blood Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Global Cord Blood (Global Cord Blood) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » Global Cord Blood Corp (OTCPK:CORBF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1 Garden Road, 48th Floor, Bank of China Tower, Central, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

http://www.globalcordbloodcorp.com

Global Cord Blood Corp provides cord blood banking services. The company provides cord blood processing and storage services for expectant parents interested in capturing the evolving medical treatments and technologies such as cord blood transplants.

Executives

Kent C Mccarthy	10 percent owner, other: Mbr 13(d) grp own 10% plus	930 TAHOE BLVD., 802-281, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451
Jayhawk Private Equity Fund Ii Lp	10 percent owner	5410 WEST 61ST PLACE, SUITE 100, MISSION KS 66205
7-2010 Grat 5 Under Kent C. Mccarthy Grat Tr Dtd 4-23-2010	other: 13 (d) group owning > 10%	7335 COTTONWOOD DRIVE, SHAWNEE KS 66216
7-2010 Grat 6 Under Kent C Mccarthy Grat Tr Dtd 4-23-2010	10 percent owner, other: Member of 13(d) group owning m	7335 COTTONWOOD, SHAWNEE KS 66216
Mccarthy Family Sd, Llc	10 percent owner, other: 13 (d) group owning > 10%	7335 COTTONWOOD DRIVE, SHAWNEE KS 66216
Jhab Fund Ii, Llc	other: 13(d) group owning > 10%	7335 COTTONWOOD DRIVE, SHAWNEE KS 66216
Jhab Management Ii, Llc	other: 13(d) group owning > 10%	7335 COTTONWOOD DRIVE, SHAWNEE KS 66216
Jcf Co Lf, L.p.	other: 13(d) group owning > 10%	930 TAHOE BLVD., 802-281, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451
Jayhawk Capital Management Llc	other: Member of the group	13021 W 74TH ST, SHAWNEE KS 66216
Jayhawk China Fund Cayman Ltd	other: Member of the group	930 TAHOE BLVD., 802-281, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451
Jayhawk Private Equity Gp Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	5410 WEST 61ST PLACE, SUITE 100, MISSION KS 66205
Jayhawk Private Equity, Llc	10 percent owner	5410 WEST 61ST PLACE, SUITE 100, MISSION KS 66205